Market Wrap-up (10.03.2026)
“NOT TAKING A RISK IS A RISK. THAT’S HOW I SEE IT” (Robert Retford)
“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”
“Panic isn’t an investing strategy. And of course, neither is bravado”
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 October Coupon is down -14 BPS at 3:30 PM ET.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Little Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS report here.
Jobs:
Sep Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) 29K vs est of 90K.
August NFP revised lower from 162K down to 133K.
July NFP revised lower from 21K down to -10K.
The rolling three month average has dropped down to 62K.
Wages:
The national Average Hourly Earnings Rate moved just 5 cents to $37.81.
Average Hourly Earnings MOM 0.1% vs est of 0.3%.
Average Hourly Earnings YOY 3.0% vs est of 3.2%.
Employment:
Headline Unemployment Rate increased to 4.2% vs est of 4.1%.
This was due to a pickup in the Laborforce Participation Rate from 61.6% to 61.8%.
U6 Underemployment dropped from 7.7% to 7.6%.
Other:
The Average Hourly Workweek remained at 34.4.
: August Factory Orders dropped from 0.9% to 0.1%.
WTI started the day trading down -$3.96 but later in the day rose $2 and is hovering around -$1.7. And that $2 swing did pressure pricing and moved us off of our earlier highs from the weak jobs data.
September employment slowed, unemployment rate increased for the first time in months, wages declined, August jobs were revised lower. The initial reaction to the 8:30 am ET release sent interest rates lower and MBS prices higher. The weak data lessens the chance of the Fed increasing rates at the end of the month that had been the belief. Nonfarm payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September, missing all estimates, while employment figures for the previous two months were revised lower. The unemployment rate also climbed to 4.2%, reinforcing signs of a cooling labor market.
The number of unemployed increased by 78,000 to 7.11 million, while total employment surged by 406,000 to 163.15 million. The labor force expanded by 485,000 to 170.26 million, pushing the labor force participation rate up to 61.8% from 61.6%. The employment-to-population ratio also edged higher to 59.2%. Meanwhile, the broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes unemployed, underemployed, and marginally attached workers, eased to 7.6% from 7.7%. Average hourly earnings for all employees on US private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1% over a month to $37.81 in September 2026, after a 0.3% increase in August and below market forecasts of 0.3%.
Another assist for the bond market today, crude oil is down almost $4.00 this morning on a report that EU states were discussing a French proposal to release 50 mil barrels of diesel, alongside a potential 50 mil barrels crude release by IEA members.
At 9:30 am the DJIA opened stronger following the bond market +345, NASDAQ opened +341 and S&P +67. 10 year at 9:30 am 5.21% -3 bps but up from 5.17% on the initial reaction to September employment. FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon at 9:30 am +35 bps and 30 bps from 9:30 yesterday. The 2 year note, more sensitive to what the Fed may do, at 9:30 am 4.76% -4 bps after trading at 4.72% on the initial reaction to employment.
The report this morning eases the outlook that the Fed may not increase the FF rate on October 28th, but inflation remains the Fed’s primary emphasis. Technically, the decline on the 10 year pushed its yield to its 25 day moving average where the improvement stopped.
PRICES @ 10:00 AM
10 year note: 5.20% -4 bp
5 year note: 4.98% -4 bp
2 year note: 4.77% -3 bp
30 year bond: 5.58% -4 bp
30 year FNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 100.15 +35 bp (+30 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year FNMA 6.0: @9:30 am 98.58 +25 bp (+64 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
30 year GNMA 6.5: @9:30 am 100.87 +21 bp (+49 bp from 9:30 am yesterday)
Dollar/Yen: 157.61 -0.46 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1261 +$0.0019
Dollar Index: 101.84 -0.26
Gold: $,4.221.80 +$19.50
Bitcoin: 86,871 +2243
Crude Oil: $89.79 +$3.09
DJIA: 51,173 +246
NASDAQ: 27,300 +428
S&P 500: 7741 +75
SOFR Data 10/02: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.76116, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.68732, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.67765, INDEX: 1.26112897
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
4,084.31 | 17.89 | 0.44% | 1.60 | 42.73% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
154,318.20 | 491.10 | 0.32% | 1.42 | 43.29% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
5,179.69 | 23.11 | 0.44% | 1.22 | 39.56% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1255 | 0.00 | 0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
157.8500 | 0.24 | 0.15% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3241 | 0.00 | 0.33% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6956 | 0.00 | 0.36% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.4251 | 0.00 | 0.20% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8288 | 0.00 | 0.26% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
18.1636 | 0.14 | 0.76% | 4:59 PM |
|
|
21.7043 | 0.05 | 0.23% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.7671 | 0.03 | 0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.8936 | 0.00 | 0.06% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
327.4600 | 0.76 | 0.23% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
84.1736 | 0.10 | 0.12% | 4:49 PM |
OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE
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