Market Wrap-up   (10.31.2026)

“NOT TAKING A RISK IS A RISK. THAT’S HOW I SEE IT” (Robert Retford)

“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits” 

“Panic isn’t an investing strategy. And of cours bravado, neither is”

 

 

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The Quarterly Employment Cost Index increased by 0.8% which was expected and was a tenth lower than the prior quarter.

Rosie the Riveter: October Chicago PMI was a solid 55.3 versus estimates of 56.1.

Central Bank Palooza: The Bank of Japan kept their key interest rate at 1.25%.

Treasury rates declined today, MBSs slightly improved. Today’s focus was on stock indexes that plummeted on weak earnings yesterday from Amazon and Intel. Tech stocks have been declining on concerns AI and other related stocks are overextended and growing fears AI investment may be getting too lofty according to analysts’ recent comments. Investors moving more into safe treasuries.

Interest rates fell after 4 pm yesterday when Amazon and Intel shocked with weak earnings. The 10 year at 4 pm yesterday 4.98%, in reaction the note dropped to 4.90% in after markets. This morning the note began at 4.94% -4 bps from 4 pm yesterday.

This week saw inflation on PCE meet expectations but was higher than in August. The FOMC and Warsh on Wednesday was rather benign and followed what markets were expecting. Warsh made no direct comments about what the Fed may do at the Dec FOMC meeting. Q3 GDP was better than estimates, weekly claims continue at 60 year lows.

Next week the mid-terms on Tuesday, current poling favors Democrats to take the House, it’s a toss up in the Senate. Not sure how markets will react. Next Friday October employment report, ADP private jobs on Wednesday. Interest rates will be dominated on market reactions to the voting, how stock indexes trade. Not likely Trump will tip his hand about Iran although Iran continues to deny any deals are in the works.

This week 10 year note -8 bps, the 2 year note -12 bps; FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon +28 bps from last Friday. The DJIA -444, NASDQ -518, S&P -44. Gold fell $127.00, crude oil down just $0.57. The dollar index gained 0.11, bitcoin bit the dust -4,714.

Technically the key 10 year is bullish, trading below its 25- and 50-day moving averages. The last time the 10 dropped below its 50 day average was the end of June although it didn’t hold. The Fed poised to increase rates, the potential of escalation in Iran being overridden by safe moves into treasuries.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.93% -5 bp

5 year note: 4.72% -7 bp

2 year note: 4.60% -5 bp

30 year bond: 5.31% -1 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.67 +15 bp (+4 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.85 +21 bp (+5 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.5: 101.66 +26 bp (+12 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 157.53 -0.18 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1168 -$0.0012

Dollar Index: 101.91 -0.13

Gold: $3,886 -$146

Bitcoin: 76,502 -4246

Crude Oil: $103.27 +$1.27

DJIA: 51,770 -572

NASDAQ: 25,437 -748

S&P 500: 7580 -140

SOFR Data 10/30: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.89857, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.77532, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.71759, INDEX: 1.26495310

 

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	4,180.88	102.94	2.40%	0.02	38.02%	12:15 PM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	157,676.20	3,823.60	2.37%	0.19	39.90%	12:15 PM
WIG30:IND WIG30	5,337.97	134.46	2.46%	0.83	36.46%	12:15 PM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1160	0.00	0.18%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	157.5600	0.15	0.10%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3391	0.00	0.11%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.7032	0.00	0.03%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3974	0.00	0.11%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8250	0.00	0.07%	4:59 PM

 

USD-MXN

18.7856

0.08

0.40%

4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	21.8195	0.04	0.20%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	26.9954	0.05	0.18%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9465	0.02	0.52%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	327.9800	1.05	0.32%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	80.5025	0.75	0.92%	4:55 PM

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL	2.95%	4.12%	6.20%	21.85%	45.49%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL

 

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

30 Yr. Fixed 7.27% -0.02% 5.99% 7.61%     15 Yr. Fixed 6.92% -0.03% 5.55% 7.23%     30 Yr. Jumbo 7.55% +0.00% 6.26% 7.71%

 

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 30, 2026

 

Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows Fri, Oct 30, 2026 2:24PM The rate market continues taking cues from turmoil in the tech sector. That resulted in the lowest rates in more than a month today as tech stocks slide to their lowest levels since July.  The biggest shift for the underlying bond market (bonds dictate rates) came just before 1pm on reports that Anthropic’s post IPO credit rating was not likely to be “investment grade.” That matters because it means Anthropic would face higher borrowing costs.  Given the company’s key role in driving the AI buildout, there are two implications that helped bonds/rates today. First, higher borrowing … (read more)

 

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.27% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.92% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.90% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.55% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.78% -0.10 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.91% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/30       Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.24% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.60% -0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/29   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.37% -0.04 0.76 15 Yr. Fixed 6.70% -0.03 0.85 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.28% -0.05 0.64 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/28

 

UMBS 30YR 6.0 99.80 -0.04 97.78 102.75     UMBS 30YR 6.5 101.66 +0.01 100.34 104.00     10 YR Treasury 4.928 +0.007 3.948 5.318

 

Bond Yields Not Eager to Follow Stocks Lower Fri, Oct 30, 2026 9:59AM Bonds were initially stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields briefly falling under 4.90%. The rally generally aligned with overnight losses in the stock market, at least at first. When European markets came online, bonds began drifting more sideways even as stocks gradually declined to new lows. Given that today is month-end and that much of this … (read more)

 

MBS Price Change UMBS 5.5 97.59 +0.04 UMBS 6.0 99.83 -0.01 UMBS 6.5 101.64 -0.02 GNMA 5.5 97.82 +0.08 GNMA 6.0 99.86 +0.03 GNMA 6.5 101.56 +0.03 Pricing as of: 10/30 5:23PM EST       US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.592 -0.002 5 YR Treasury 4.726 -0.020 7 YR Treasury 4.817 -0.006 10 YR Treasury 4.934 +0.012 30 YR Treasury 5.310 +0.010 Pricing as of: 10/30 5:23PM EST