Magazyn Kieszeń (508) 06.22.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 July Coupon is up a mild +12 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.

Taking it to the House: May Existing Home Sales hit an annualized pace of 4.11M units versus estimates of 4.10M.

Report Card: The May Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) continues to contract, this time by -0.5% versus estimates of -0.3%.

Step Brothers: The preliminary June S&P Flash PMI readings hit at 9:45 am. This does not carry as much weight as the ISM readings do. Manufacturing PMI was 51.7 versus estimates of 51.0 and Services PMI was 55.1 versus estimates of 53.7.

Today June FLASH PMI manufacturing and services both indexes better than forecasts.

May existing home sales declined for the third month in a row but the median price for an existing home in May rose 5.8% compared with the year before, to $419,300, an all-time high. Around 30% of properties were sold above list price, the NAR said, with homes receiving an average of 2.8 offers. Million-dollar homes were selling the most briskly. Nationwide, sales of homes priced at $1 million or more rose 22.6% across the U.S. compared with a year ago. Sales of homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000 rose 1%. The total number of homes listed on the market in April rose 18.5% from last year, to 1.28 million units. There is a 3.7-month supply of unsold inventory, which is the highest level since June 2020. In a more balanced market, there would be about four to six months’ worth of unsold inventory. All-cash buyers made up 28% of sales. About 31% of homes were sold to first-time home buyers.

We won’t let it lie; US debt is going to be a problem for the US; the 2024 debt now forecast at $1.9 trillion and that will match US GDP; at some point the impact will be felt in the cost to fund the debt.

By the end of the day interest rates are unchanged from yesterday ahead of a very busy week next week.

Next Week’s Calendar: Tuesday April Case/Shiller home price index, June consumer confidence index from the Conference Board, 2 year note auction. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, May new home sales, 5 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, May durable goods orders, Q1 final GDP, May pending home sales, 7 year note auction. Friday June PCE inflation data, May personal spending and income, University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June.

This week’s levels: The 10 year note this week increased 5 bps, the 2 year +4 bps. FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -7 bps. DJIA +560, NASDAQ unch, S&P +32. Gold this week declined $15.00, crude oil increased $2.12. The US dollar continued to increase, the index increased 1.27, Bitcoin declined 1.359.

Quiet this week but not likely to stay that way with key data and Treasury borrowing.

10 year note at 4:00 pm

WE WILL LOCK OVER THE WEEKEND.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.26% unch

5 year note: 4.28% -1 bp

2 year note: 4.74% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.40% unch

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.69 (+1 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.02 unch (-1 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 99.62 +3 bp (+6 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yuan: $7.2611 +$0.0009

Dollar/Yen: 159.56 +0.63 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0695 -$0.0007

Dollar Index: 105.81 +0.22

Gold: $2,335.00 -$34.00

Bitcoin: 64,065 -905

Crude Oil: $80.68 -$0.61

DJIA: 39,150.40 +15.64

NASDAQ: 17,689.36 -32.23

S&P 500: 5464.62 -8.55

SOFR Data 06/21: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.33535, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.35340, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 5.38892, INDEX: 1.14379345

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,489.91	-7.91	-0.32%	-3.02%	+22.35%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	86,415.63	-133.99	-0.15%	-2.62%	+28.64%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,115.52	-6.10	-0.20%	-3.34%	+22.47%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

Currency	Value			Change		Net Change		Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0693			-0.0009		-0.08%		4:59 PM
USD-JPY	159.8000			0.8700		+0.55%		4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2645			-0.0012		-0.09%		4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6641			-0.0015		-0.23%		4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3692			0.0003		+0.02%		4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8939			0.0025		+0.28%		4:59 PM
USD-MXN		18.1130	-0.2586		-1.41%		4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	23.3156	0.0440	+0.19%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.1744	0.0246	+0.09%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	4.0457	0.0029	+0.07%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	370.6100	-0.2200	-0.06%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	89.0751	1.8251	+2.09%	4:33 PM

 

 

 

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	2.11%	1.58%	7.89%	30.54%	40.19%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.01% -0.01%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.01% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.42% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.49% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.01% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.50% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 6/21 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.42% +0.00%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.04 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 6/20   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.02% -0.05 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 6.60% -0.15 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.18% -0.03 0.54 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 6/12

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.20 +0.02   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.20 +0.02 UMBS 6.0 100.67 +0.05 GNMA 5.5 99.60 +0.11 GNMA 6.0 100.58 +0.06 Pricing as of: 6/21 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2554 -0.0050   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.730 -0.010 5 YR Treasury 4.271 -0.008 7 YR Treasury 4.256 -0.006 10 YR Treasury 4.255 -0.005 30 YR Treasury 4.397 0.000 Pricing as of: 6/21 5:31PM EST

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.875	-3.202	-3.152	-3.022	7.625	-3.171	-3.121	-2.991
7.750	-2.796	-2.746	-2.616	7.500	-2.895	-2.845	-2.715
7.625	-3.142	-3.092	-2.962	7.375	-2.548	-2.498	-2.368
7.500	-2.872	-2.822	-2.692	7.250	-2.155	-2.105	-1.975
7.375	-2.503	-2.453	-2.323	7.125	-2.337	-2.287	-2.157
7.250	-2.048	-1.998	-1.868	6.999	-2.067	-2.017	-1.887
7.125	-2.196	-2.146	-2.016	6.875	-1.648	-1.598	-1.468
6.999	-1.882	-1.832	-1.702	6.750	-1.211	-1.161	-1.031
6.875	-1.453	-1.403	-1.273	6.625	-1.749	-1.699	-1.569
6.750	-0.910	-0.860	-0.730	6.500	-1.409	-1.359	-1.229
6.625	-1.177	-1.127	-0.997	6.375	-0.951	-0.901	-0.771
6.500	-0.820	-0.770	-0.640	6.250	-0.465	-0.415	-0.285
6.375	-0.317	-0.267	-0.137	6.125	-0.431	-0.381	-0.251
6.250	0.321	0.371	0.501	5.999	-0.077	-0.027	0.103
6.125	0.152	0.202	0.332	5.875	0.441	0.491	0.621
5.999	0.636	0.686	0.816	5.750	0.975	1.025	1.155
5.875	1.307	1.357	1.487	5.625	1.545	1.595	1.725
5.750	2.036	2.086	2.216	5.500	1.957	2.007	2.137
5.625	2.263	2.313	2.443	5.375	2.468	2.518	2.648

 

 

 

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-2.561	-2.511	-2.381	6.875	-2.539	-2.489	-2.359
6.875	-2.374	-2.324	-2.194	6.750	-2.192	-2.142	-2.012
6.750	-2.023	-1.973	-1.843	6.625	-1.782	-1.732	-1.602
6.625	-1.613	-1.563	-1.433	6.500	-2.182	-2.132	-2.002
6.500	-1.874	-1.824	-1.694	6.375	-1.959	-1.909	-1.779
6.375	-1.638	-1.588	-1.458	6.250	-1.574	-1.524	-1.394
6.250	-1.249	-1.199	-1.069	6.125	-1.147	-1.097	-0.967
6.125	-0.822	-0.772	-0.642	6.000	-1.465	-1.415	-1.285
6.000	-1.066	-1.016	-0.886	5.875	-1.187	-1.137	-1.007
5.875	-0.773	-0.723	-0.593	5.750	-0.780	-0.730	-0.600
5.750	-0.361	-0.311	-0.181	5.625	-0.318	-0.268	-0.138
5.625	0.101	0.151	0.281	5.500	-0.487	-0.437	-0.307
5.500	0.006	0.056	0.186	5.375	-0.166	-0.116	0.014
5.375	0.343	0.393	0.523	5.250	0.272	0.322	0.452
5.250	0.785	0.835	0.965	5.125	0.749	0.799	0.929
5.125	1.262	1.312	1.442	5.000	0.894	0.944	1.074
5.000	1.478	1.528	1.658	4.875	1.256	1.306	1.436
4.875	1.857	1.907	2.037	4.750	1.737	1.787	1.917
4.750	2.343	2.393	2.523	4.625	2.252	2.302	2.432