Magazyn Kieszeń (524) 10.12.2024

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 October Coupon is down just -7 BPS at 2:40 PM ET.

Inflation Nation: At first glance, it might appear that the PPI data was lower than expected with the Headline PPI flat at 0.0% on a MOM basis versus estimates of 0.1%. But the bond market is focusing on the YOY number which was 1.8% versus estimates of 1.6% and an upward revision to August’s data as well. The Core (ex food and energy) PPI was up 0.2% versus 0.2% on a MOM basis and 2.8% versus 2.7% on a YOY basis with August being revised upward from 2.4% to 2.6%.

Consumer Sentiment: The preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment Index hit at 10 am it was weaker than expected, 68.9 versus estimates of 70.8.

Inflation creped higher this week on CPI data, comments from a Fed official, Bostic, that he may want to leave the FF rate unchanged and not cut 25 bps as was widely expected, a week prior talk of a 50 bp cut went flying out the window but 25 was still in focus until Bostic, and Sept inflation increased. Interest rates spiked with the thought. Meantime jobless claims increased more than thought, not what Powell wanted to see. It was a nasty week for interest rates, 10 year yield increased 10 bps, MBS prices fell 20 bps and 30 year mortgage rates ticked up. The increase in jobless claims surprised, the highest this year. Not cutting 25 bps isn’t going to help job growth.

The election in 26 days, how is it impacting markets? Can’t tell, stocks continue to increase but both candidates’ plans are considered inflationary. The FOMC meets two days after the election that may still not be resolved as close as the polls say it is.

Next Week’s Calendar: The bond and mortgage markets closed on Monday; stocks open. Tuesday NY State manufacturing index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, Sept import and export prices. Thursday weekly job less claims, Sept retail sales, Oct Philadelphia Fed business index, Sept industrial production and capacity utilization, October NAHB housing market index, August business inventories. Friday Sept housing starts and permits.

This Week: The 10 year note this week increased 10 bps; the 2 year note +2 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon this week -19 bps. The DJIA +511, NASDAQ +254, S&P +64. Crude oil increased $9.90 on mid-east fears. Gold about unchanged. Up $3.00 this week. The dollar index increased 0.42. Bitcoin up 668.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.08 +2 bp

5 year note: 3.89% unch

2 year note: 3.95% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.40% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.31 -3 bp (+3 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.61 -1 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.55 +5 bp (-1 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 149.15 +0.58 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0937 -$0.0002

Dollar Index: 102.90 -0.08

Gold: $2,672.40 +$33.10

Bitcoin: 63,003 +3337

Crude Oil: $75.51 -$0.34

DJIA: 42,863.86 +409.74

NASDAQ: 18,392.94 +60.89

S&P 500: 5815.03 +34.98

Poland

Name		Value			Net Change		% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EDT)
WIG20:IND WIG 20		2,333.75			+25.59		+1.11%	+3.16%	+18.06%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX		83,455.19			+822.41		+1.00%	+4.48%	+24.46%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30		2,947.69			+28.94		+0.99%	+3.37%	+20.72%	11:15
WALUTY	Value		Change	Net Change		Time (EDT)
EUR-USD	1.0937		0.0003	+0.03%		4:59 PM
USD-JPY	149.1300		0.5600	+0.38%		4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3067		0.0008	+0.06%		4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6750		0.0011	+0.16%		4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3762		0.0020	+0.15%		4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8572		0.0002	+0.02%		4:59 PM

USD-CZK	23.1355	-0.0435	-0.19%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.5456	-0.0065	-0.02%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9227	-0.0124	-0.32%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	366.9200	0.2600	+0.07%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	95.8044	-1.0206	-1.05%	11:39 AM

USD-MXN

19.2802

-0.1800

-0.93%

4:59 PM

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.64% +0.02%

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage News Daily
30 Yr. Fixed	6.64%	+0.02	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.10%	-0.06	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.12%	0.00	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.75%	0.00	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.55%	-0.01	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.13%	-0.02	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/11

15 Yr. Fixed Rate

6.10% -0.06%

	Rate	Change	Points
Freddie Mac
30 Yr. Fixed	6.32%	+0.20	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.41%	+0.16	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/10

	Rate	Change	Points
Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.13%	-0.03	0.57
15 Yr. Fixed	5.47%	+0.05	0.52
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.47%	+0.06	0.50
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 9/25

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.0

98.68 -0.13

	Price / Yield	Change
MBS
UMBS 5.0	98.68	-0.13
UMBS 5.5	100.24	-0.13
GNMA 5.0	99.12	0.00
GNMA 5.5	100.51	-0.07
Pricing as of: 10/11 5:31PM EST

10 Year US Treasury

4.0924 +0.0316

	Price / Yield	Change
US Treasury
2 YR Treasury	3.948	-0.005
5 YR Treasury	3.895	+0.012
7 YR Treasury	3.985	+0.023
10 YR Treasury	4.092	+0.032
30 YR Treasury	4.403	+0.044
Pricing as of: 10/11 5:31PM EST

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	2.99%	4.95%	7.53%	28.83%	42.54%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.625	-3.677	-3.587	-3.457	7.375	-3.054	-2.964	-2.834
7.500	-3.476	-3.386	-3.256	7.250	-2.688	-2.598	-2.468
7.375	-3.141	-3.051	-2.921	7.125	-2.749	-2.659	-2.529
7.250	-2.742	-2.652	-2.522	7.000	-2.497	-2.407	-2.277
7.125	-2.862	-2.772	-2.642	6.875	-2.154	-2.064	-1.934
7.000	-2.636	-2.546	-2.416	6.750	-1.778	-1.688	-1.558
6.875	-2.240	-2.150	-2.020	6.625	-2.290	-2.200	-2.070
6.750	-1.780	-1.690	-1.560	6.500	-1.958	-1.868	-1.738
6.625	-1.978	-1.888	-1.758	6.375	-1.580	-1.490	-1.360
6.500	-1.675	-1.585	-1.455	6.250	-1.176	-1.086	-0.956
6.375	-1.203	-1.113	-0.983	6.125	-1.328	-1.238	-1.108
6.250	-0.675	-0.585	-0.455	5.999	-0.967	-0.877	-0.747
6.125	-0.846	-0.756	-0.626	5.875	-0.519	-0.429	-0.299
5.999	-0.447	-0.357	-0.227	5.750	-0.057	0.033	0.163
5.875	0.167	0.257	0.387	5.625	0.523	0.613	0.743
5.750	0.859	0.949	1.079	5.500	0.937	1.027	1.157
5.625	0.889	0.979	1.109	5.375	1.417	1.507	1.637
5.500	1.439	1.529	1.659	5.250	1.956	2.046	2.176
5.375	2.136	2.226	2.356	5.125	2.628	2.718	2.848