Magazyn Kieszeń (541) 02.15.2025

Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 February Coupon is up +21 BPS at 2:45 PM ET.

Retail Snails: Headline January Retail Sales cratered by -0.9% versus estimates of -0.1%. Ex autos, it was still an ugly story, falling by -0.4% versus estimates of +0.3%. The Control Group decreased from +0.8% in December to -0.8% in January.

Genco Olive Oil: January Import Prices increased by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.4% on a MOM basis and dropped from 2.2% down to 1.9% on a YOY basis.

Rosie the Riveter: January Industrial Production hit 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3% and Capacity Utilization was 77.8% versus estimates of 77.7%.

On Deck for Tomorrow: ***The bond market is CLOSED on Monday for President’s day***

On Wednesday January CPI, hotter than expected, interest rates increased; Thursday January PPI weaker than expected interest rates declined. Today January retail sales were weaker than expected, interest rates declined. Interest rate volatility marked this week; by the end of it all interest rates are unchanged from last Friday.

The inflation outlook continues, Trump’s DOGE initiatives continue, the world awaits tomorrow (5:00 am eastern) about what the Israelis will do if Hamas doesn’t release all prisoners, probably nothing immediate however, but the time is approaching when Israel has had enough.

CPI inflation spiked on Wednesday but after the knee jerk reaction traders and investors remembered the Fed doesn’t give much emphasis on it, preferring the PCE data that will be released on the 28th of February. In the meantime, pundits are full of possibilities and reasons inflation increases haven’t hurt consumer spending until now and most of the decline in retail sales this morning can be blamed on the very nasty weather across the country in January. There is plenty for the bond market to contend with, inflation, the debt, tariffs, Ukraine…and the list goes on. All of it together will continue to keep interest rates elevated.

Next week’s calendar is very lite in terms of key market moving data points. Monday all markets are closed for President’s Day. Tuesday Feb Empire State manufacturing index, February NAHB hosing market index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, January housing starts and permits. Thursday weekly jobless claims, February Philadelphia Fed business index, January leading economic indicators. Friday U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index (the mid-month release was quite worrisome, consumers not content and the data pointed to increased inflation), January existing home sales, February S&P Global manufacturing index.

This Week: The 10 year note declined just 1 bp, the 2 year note -3 bp; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon increased4 bp in price. The DJIA increased 242, NASDQ +504, S&P +89. Both crude oil and gold like interest rates, unchanged, gold +$9.00, crude oil +$0.39. The dollar hit hard; the index fell 1.33. Bitcoin increased 2,049.

 

CENY @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.48% -5 bp

5 year note: 4.34% -6 bp

2 year note: 4.27% -5 bp

30 year bond: 4.70% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.86 +21 bp (-4 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.55 +15 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.12 +34 bp (+16 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 152.32 -0.48 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.0498 +$0.0031

Dollar Index: 106.76 -0.55

Gold: $2,895.40 -$50.00

Bitcoin: 97,996 +1712

Crude Oil: $70.60 -$0.69

DJIA: 44,545.46 -165.97

NASDAQ: 20,026.77 +81.13

S&P 500: 6114.60 -0.47

SOFR Data 02/14: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34031, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.45846, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.76982, INDEX: 1.18118373

Poland

Name	Value	Net Change	% Change	1 Month	1 Year	Time (EST)
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,575.77	-19.15	-0.74%	+15.09%	+9.72%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	91,788.06	-554.37	-0.60%	+12.67%	+15.57%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,279.02	-19.62	-0.59%	+14.64%	+12.49%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency	Value	Change	Net Change	Time (EST)
EUR-USD	1.0492	0.0027	+0.26%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	152.3100	-0.4900	-0.32%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.2586	0.0020	+0.16%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6352	0.0035	+0.55%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.4182	-0.0011	-0.08%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8998	-0.0032	-0.35%	4:59 PM

 

USD-MXN

20.3130

-0.0929

-0.46%

4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	23.8540	-0.0657	-0.27%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	28.7136	-0.0751	-0.26%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9736	-0.0106	-0.27%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	383.6500	-0.8200	-0.21%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	91.3438	1.8438	+2.06%	4:58 PM

 

 

 

Mortgage Rates

30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.96% -0.08%   Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.96% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.41% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.33% -0.12 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.32% -0.07 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.85% -0.10 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.35% -0.12 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 2/14 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.41% -0.07%   Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.87% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.09% +0.04 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 2/13   Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.02% -0.07 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.45% +0.02 0.64 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.98% -0.07 0.50 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/22

MBS / Treasuries

UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.05 +0.28   Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.05 +0.28 UMBS 6.0 100.86 +0.22 GNMA 5.5 99.64 +0.38 GNMA 6.0 101.03 +0.31 Pricing as of: 2/14 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4772 -0.0546   Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.262 -0.051 5 YR Treasury 4.331 -0.062 7 YR Treasury 4.404 -0.056 10 YR Treasury 4.477 -0.055 30 YR Treasury 4.700 -0.066 Pricing as of: 2/14 5:31PM EST

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL	1.83%	4.92%	7.19%	27.35%	44.10%	Tracking Tool	Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Evanston, IL

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE  21-30 YEAR				ELITE  16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
8.000	-5.252	-5.162	-5.032	7.875	-4.951	-4.861	-4.731
7.875	-4.895	-4.805	-4.675	7.750	-4.484	-4.394	-4.264
7.750	-4.455	-4.365	-4.235	7.625	-4.018	-3.928	-3.798
7.625	-3.952	-3.862	-3.732	7.500	-3.508	-3.418	-3.288
7.500	-3.637	-3.547	-3.417	7.375	-3.114	-3.024	-2.894
7.375	-3.220	-3.130	-3.000	7.250	-2.661	-2.571	-2.441
7.250	-2.738	-2.648	-2.518	7.125	-2.395	-2.305	-2.175
7.125	-2.618	-2.528	-2.398	6.999	-1.623	-1.533	-1.403
6.999	-2.289	-2.199	-2.069	6.875	-1.631	-1.541	-1.411
6.875	-1.791	-1.701	-1.571	6.750	-1.161	-1.071	-0.941
6.750	-1.230	-1.140	-1.010	6.625	-1.382	-1.292	-1.162
6.625	-1.327	-1.237	-1.107	6.500	-1.061	-0.971	-0.841
6.500	-0.917	-0.827	-0.697	6.375	-0.564	-0.474	-0.344
6.375	-0.288	-0.198	-0.068	6.250	-0.064	0.026	0.156
6.250	0.389	0.479	0.609	6.125	0.030	0.120	0.250
6.125	0.381	0.471	0.601	5.999	0.495	0.585	0.715
5.999	0.891	0.981	1.111	5.875	0.974	1.064	1.194
5.875	1.619	1.709	1.839	5.750	1.490	1.580	1.710
5.750	2.412	2.502	2.632	5.625	2.176	2.266	2.396

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE  8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.125	-3.801	-3.711	-3.581	7.000	-3.538	-3.448	-3.318
7.000	-3.568	-3.478	-3.348	6.875	-3.284	-3.194	-3.064
6.875	-3.303	-3.213	-3.083	6.750	-2.839	-2.749	-2.619
6.750	-2.858	-2.768	-2.638	6.625	-2.973	-2.883	-2.753
6.625	-2.922	-2.832	-2.702	6.500	-2.729	-2.639	-2.509
6.500	-2.666	-2.576	-2.446	6.375	-2.453	-2.363	-2.233
6.375	-2.378	-2.288	-2.158	6.250	-1.978	-1.888	-1.758
6.250	-1.903	-1.813	-1.683	6.125	-2.143	-2.053	-1.923
6.125	-2.033	-1.943	-1.813	6.000	-1.843	-1.753	-1.623
6.000	-1.719	-1.629	-1.499	5.875	-1.508	-1.418	-1.288
5.875	-1.371	-1.281	-1.151	5.750	-1.007	-0.917	-0.787
5.750	-0.869	-0.779	-0.649	5.625	-0.613	-0.523	-0.393
5.625	-0.474	-0.384	-0.254	5.500	-0.275	-0.185	-0.055
5.500	0.034	0.124	0.254	5.375	0.093	0.183	0.313
5.375	0.418	0.508	0.638	5.250	0.613	0.703	0.833
5.250	0.938	1.028	1.158	5.125	0.967	1.057	1.187
5.125	1.395	1.485	1.615	5.000	1.304	1.394	1.524
5.000	1.768	1.858	1.988	4.875	1.698	1.788	1.918
4.875	2.179	2.269	2.399	4.750	2.251	2.341	2.471