Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.000 August Coupon is down -25 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.
There were no major (or minor) domestic economic releases today.
Tariffic: The White House is threatening to raise the minimum global tariff rate from 10% to 20%. Canada would be hit with 35% tariffs August 1 and Brazil with 50% tariffs. Meanwhile the Treasury Depart reported a huge surge in the inflow of cash receipts. In May, the Treasury department had a deficit of $316B. But in June, that flipped to a $27B surplus thanks to Tariffs!!
Interest rates increased, stock indexes fell; Trump jumped on Canada and threatened increased tariffs because Canada wasn’t doing it’s part stopping fentanyl from crossing our border. This week Trump sent out at least 21 letters to other countries while continuing to say August 1st is the deadline. Each time Trump adds additional tariffs rates inch up and stock indexes slip. Another issue today, next Tuesday’s June CPI report; some early estimates for the core CPI month/month an increase to 0.3% up from 0.1% in May, if that turns out to be the case it would be the largest month/month increase since January. Hard estimates will be shown on Monday morning.
In a positive news release today, the June Treasury budget statement. Normally estimates are in line with what is reported, the estimates were for the month were -$50.0B but Treasury ended the month with a surplus on $27B after May’s -$515.7B deficit. The surplus driven by a sharp rise in customs duties revenue, which hit a record $27.2B. This boost in tariff collections, especially from policies initiated under President Trump, helped push June budget receipts up 13% to $526B, while spending dropped 7% to $499B. Year-to-date, the overall budget deficit rose 5% to $1.337 trillion, due to increased outlays on healthcare, Social Security, defense, and interest on debt. Trump’s tariffs beginning to kick in.
Next Week’s Calendar: Nothing on Monday. Tuesday June CPI, July Empire State manufacturing index. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications. June PPI, June industrial production and factory use, the Fed’s Beige Book. Thursday weekly jobless claims, June retail sales, June import and export prices, July NAHB housing market index, July Philadelphia Fed business index. Friday June housing starts and permits, U. of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index.
This Week: The 10 year note yield increased 7 bps, the 2 year note +1 bp; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon declined 29 bps. The DJIA this week -457, NASDAQ -16, S&P -20. Gold increased $36.00, crude oil up$1.34. The dollar improved, the index increased 0.69. The big mover this week, Bitcoin in increased to new records +8,213.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.42% +7 bp
5 year note: 3.99% +5 bp
2 year note: 3.90% +2 bp
30 year bond: 4.96% +9 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.19 -17 bp (-1 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.5: 102.91 -12 bp (-4 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.31 -10 bp (+16 bp from 9:30)?
Dollar/Yen: 147.48 +1.23 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1688 -$0.0014
Dollar Index: 97.85 +0.20
Gold: $3,373.50 +$47.80
Bitcoin: 117,945 +4528
Crude Oil: $68.57 +$2.00
DJIA: 44,371.51 -279.13
NASDAQ: 20,585.53 -45.14
S&P 500: 6259.75 -20.71
SOFR Data 07/11: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.33962, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.34142, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.37395, INDEX: 1.20223614
Poland
| Name | Value | Net Change | % Change | 1 Month | 1 Year | Time (EDT) |
| WIG20:IND
|
2,860.93 | +10.35 | +0.36% | +2.92% | +12.30% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
105,107.00 | +183.47 | +0.17% | +3.35% | +19.23% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
3,705.86 | +12.29 | +0.33% | +2.94% | +16.38% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency | Value | Change | Net Change | Time (EDT) |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1689 | -0.0012 | -0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
147.4300 | 1.1700 | +0.80% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3493 | -0.0086 | -0.63% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6578 | -0.0010 | -0.15% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3692 | 0.0037 | +0.27% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.7966 | -0.0005 | -0.06% | 4:59 P |
| USD-MXN
|
18.6369 | 0.0307 | +0.17% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.1020 | 0.0466 | +0.22% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
25.7732 | 0.0262 | +0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.6496 | 0.0153 | +0.42% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
341.9400 | 1.1800 | +0.35% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
77.9714 | 3.8714 | +5.22% | 11:21 AM |
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