Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 November Coupon is up just +3 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.

Taking it to the House: The October NAHB Home Builders’ Sentiment hit 37 versus estimates of 34 but still well below the neutral level of 50.

Rosie the Riveter: The October Philly Fed Manufacturing Index was much weaker than expected by dropping from September’s level of 23.2 down to -12.8. Estimates were for 7.5.

The Talking Fed: We had another day of Fed speak with Gov Waller who said this morning that he would support a 25BPS cut at this meeting (Oct) and then “wait and see.”

On Deck for Tomorrow: The scheduled economic releases will not hit due to the govt shutdown.

The 10 year note broke below 4.00% this afternoon setting off what will be lower interest rates if there is follow through tomorrow. The 10 at 3.97% is the lowest rate since last April.

In a week where data releases have been a guess not being reported, today Treasury released the 2025 fiscal budget deficit. Sept Treasury budget showed a surplus of $198B against what the CBO expected to be another deficit last week. The improvement due to Pres. Trump’s tariffs. The fiscal 2025 had a deficit of $1.78 trillion, 2.2% lower than fiscal 2024. Trump’s tariffs were a major contributor to tariff collections of $202 billion for the year, representing a 142% surge from 2024. September saw $30 billion in tariff payments, up 295% from the same period a year ago.

Treasury officials estimated that the dip in the budget shortfall will bring the ratio of deficit to gross domestic product to 5.9%. The measure has not been below 6% since 2022 and generally runs around the 3% area except in times of economic stress, so the debt while great is still high. Because of high US rates in 2025 interest on the debt totaled more than $1.2 trillion, a record and nearly $100B higher than the 2024. The U.S. collecting $5.2 trillion in revenue over the prior 12 months while spending just over $7 trillion.

This morning the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 37 in October 2025, the highest in six months, compared to 32 in each of the previous two months. Current sales conditions increased four points to 38. Sales expectations in the next six months jumped nine points to 54 and the traffic of prospective buyers’ gauge posted a four-point gain to 25. In a sign of ongoing challenges for the housing market, the survey also revealed that 38% of builders reported cutting prices in October. Meanwhile, the average price reduction rose to 6% in October after averaging 5% for several months previously. The last time builders reduced prices by 6% was a year ago in October 2024. The use of sales incentives was 65% in October, unchanged from September.

Tomorrow Sept housing starts and permits; starts expected at 1.315 mil from 1.307 mil; permits 1.347 mil up from 1.312mil.

The break below 4.00% on the 10 should see follow through tomorrow as traders generally sidelined recently will take advantage; the Fed will cut rates and with deficits Purely ticking lower the potential for additional improvement is high. Not since April 4th has the note been this low. Purely technical but our outlook now is around 3.90% for the note.

Interest rates declined this week, the low end of the curve saw the largest declines increasing the slope of the yield curve. Stock indexes were choppy but did improve. Nothing from Congress as politicians remain in gridlock and don’t appear to care that much. In the meantime there hasn’t been any economic releases since the shut down began 17 days ago, all there are estimates that don’t carry much weight. Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) remained 19 basis points above the effective fed funds rate. This spread, which is traditionally in the single digits, is now about twice as big as it was on Tuesday, contributing to ongoing worries about banks scrambling for liquidity.

Rates since the shut down have improved driven by timely comments from Jerome Powell and other Fed officials that rate cuts are coming. While most remarks ended with ‘data dependent’ summations markets continue the look for 50 bps between now and year’s end, 25 bps at the October FOMC meeting on the 29th.

Will Congress get a bill passed over the weekend? Presently it doesn’t look like it but miracles do occur, if, when, the shut down ends markets will be deluged by data releases that will likely increase volatility. If the shut down continues more data will get stacked up.

This week: The 10 year note rate -6 bps, the 2 year note -18 bps, FNMA 5.5 30 coupon +17 bps. The DJIA +711, NASDAQ +476, S&P +111. Gold increased $209.00, crude oil declined $1.26. Bitcoin crashed, down 10,569. The dollar index -0.49.

10 year note at 4:00 pm

WE WILL CONTINUE FLOATING A SMALL POSITION

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.00% +3 bp

5 year note: 3.59% +4 bp

2 year note: 3.47% +4 bp

30 year bond: 4.60% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.15 -4 bp (-2 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.30 unch (+3 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.99 unch (+2 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 150.49 +0.05 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1667 -$0.0021

Dollar Index: 98.44 +0.10

Gold: $4,237.00 -$67.60

Bitcoin: 106,385 -1854

Crude Oil: $57.60 +$0.14

DJIA: 46,190.61 +238.37

NASDAQ: 22,679.97 +117.44

S&P 500: 6664.01 +34.94

SOFR Data 10/17: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.18078, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.31988, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.35404, INDEX: 1.2163886

 

POLAND

 

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	2,887.16	13.92	0.48%	2.40	23.33%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	108,214.70	514.70	0.47%	2.14	29.20%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,729.11	22.59	0.60%	1.61	26.05%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

 

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1686	0.00	0.01%	5:15 PM
USD-JPY	150.4100	0.02	0.01%	5:15 PM
GBP-USD	1.3431	0.00	0.02%	5:15 PM
AUD-USD	0.6485	0.00	0.00%	5:14 PM
USD-CAD	1.4053	0.00	0.01%	5:15 PM
USD-CHF	0.7933	0.00	0.04%	5:15 PM

 

 

USD-MXN

18.4480

0.01

0.07%

5:15 PM

 

 

USD-CZK	20.7798	0.00	0.01%	5:14 PM
USD-SKK	25.7791	0.00	0.01%	5:13 PM
USD-PLN	3.6354	0.00	0.01%	5:14 PM
USD-HUF	333.5800	0.01	0.00%	5:13 PM
USD-RUB	80.1416	1.92	2.45%	2:29 PM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

CENY W US FINANCIAL LTD

Conventional 30Yr Fixed / 21-30Yr Amortization

Rate   15 Day    30 Day    45 Day     60 Day

6.000 102.027 101.967 101.911 101.877

6.125 102.484 102.403 102.348 102.312

6.250 102.013 101.988 101.958 101.940

Conventional 15Yr Fixed / 11-15Yr Amortization

Rate    15 Day    30 Day    45 Day    60 Day

5.875 102.016 101.975 101.958 101.94

5.990 102.273 102.226 102.209 102.196

 

CENY – ŚREDNIA KRAJOWA

 

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.500	-3.907	-3.817	-3.687
7.375	-3.472	-3.382	-3.252
7.250	-3.013	-2.923	-2.793
7.125	-3.210	-3.120	-2.990
6.999	-3.015	-2.925	-2.795
6.875	-2.578	-2.488	-2.358
6.750	-2.041	-1.951	-1.821
6.625	-2.522	-2.432	-2.302
6.500	-2.144	-2.054	-1.924
6.375	-1.574	-1.484	-1.354
6.250	-0.943	-0.853	-0.723
6.125	-1.369	-1.279	-1.149
5.999	-0.923	-0.833	-0.703
5.875	-0.303	-0.213	-0.083
5.750	0.422	0.512	0.642
5.625	0.247	0.337	0.467
5.500	0.759	0.849	0.979
5.375	1.567	1.657	1.787
5.250	2.414	2.504	2.634
ELITE 11-15 YEAR   RATE 15 DAY 30 DAY 45 DAY 6.625 -3.404 -3.314 -3.184 6.500 -3.227 -3.137 -3.007 6.375 -3.017 -2.927 -2.797 6.250 -2.510 -2.420 -2.290 6.125 -2.442 -2.352 -2.222 6.000 -2.195 -2.105 -1.975 5.875 -1.933 -1.843 -1.713 5.750 -1.450 -1.360 -1.230 5.625 -1.525 -1.435 -1.305 5.500 -1.259 -1.169 -1.039 5.375 -0.945 -0.855 -0.725 5.250 -0.429 -0.339 -0.209 5.125 -0.312 -0.222 -0.092 5.000 0.050 0.140 0.270 4.875 0.432 0.522 0.652 4.750 0.968 1.058 1.188 4.625 0.995 1.085 1.215 4.500 1.404 1.494 1.624 4.375 1.798 1.888 2.018     Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.23% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.80% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.98% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.20% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.71% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.99% -0.03 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/16           Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.27% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.52% -0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/16   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.43% -0.03 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 5.77% +0.01 0.79 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.60% +0.06 0.44 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/8
UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.89 +0.16 95.05 99.96 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.18 +0.09 97.47 101.28 10 YR Treasury 3.975 -0.054 3.932 4.780
Block Trades Setting The Tone After Mostly Data-Free Morning Thu, Oct 16, 2025 9:40AM There were quite a few economic reports that would have been released this morning were it not for the gov shutdown.  OK, well only 3 notable absences, but there would have been a 3 week backlog of jobless claims in addition to typically spicier Retail Sales and PPI data. As it stands, Philly Fed was the only scheduled data released at 8:30am and i… (read more)
MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.30 UMBS 5.0 99.89 +0.16 UMBS 5.5 101.18 +0.09 GNMA 4.5 98.04 +0.30 GNMA 5.0 99.93 0.00 GNMA 5.5 100.92 -0.01 Pricing as of: 10/16 4:11PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.425 -0.075 5 YR Treasury 3.550 -0.070 7 YR Treasury 3.741 -0.064 10 YR Treasury 3.975 -0.054 30 YR Treasury 4.583 -0.043 Pricing as of: 10/16 4:11PM EST