Magazyn Kieszeń (584) 12.20.2025

Market Wrap-up.

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 January Coupon is currently down -9 BPS.

Taking it to the House: The November Existing Home Sales were close to expectations, 4.13M versus estimates of 4.15M. October was 4.11M.

Central Bank Palooza: The Bank of Japan increased their interest rate and hinted at future “hawkish” action by saying that they are still under the “neutral” rate.

Glass Half Empty: The final December UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was revised lower from 53.3 down to 52.9 which is near a 47 year low. 1 year inflation expectations increased from 4.1% to 4.2%.

Interest rates improved this week if you look hard, the 10 declined 4 bps. At the short end, the 2 year note also improved 4 bps. The short answer is interest rates have hardly changed for the last two weeks, at the long end of the curve that sets mortgage rates the 10 year note has been locked between 4.10% and 4.20%, today at the middle of the range.

Yesterday’s much better CPI inflation was jettisoned to the trash today given much of the key data needed for accuracy was left out of the report because BLS was shut down and data points were never calculated, the leading miss was in shelter costs that declined pushing inflation lower. Earlier this week the Nov employment report was a mixed view, more jobs than forecast but the unemployment rate increased from 4.4% to 4.6%. Weekly jobless claims declined 13K from the previous week. The scheduled data nor reported; Nov retail sales, Nov housing starts and permits, Nov PCE inflation, Nov personal income and spending.

With so much data left hanging, and what was released thrown away because it wasn’t complete it isn’t any wonder interest rates hardly changed. Next week’s economic reports on the schedule; Q3 GDP, October durable goods orders (old data). Dec consumer confidence index, and weekly claims. Early closes on Wednesday and Friday. Next week’s trading subject to possible volatility with trading floors half full.

The Fed is not going to cut the FF rate at the January FOMC meeting, markets fully in agreement.

This morning Nov existing home sales rose by 0.5% from the previous month to an annualized rate of 4.13 mil in November, a third straight increase to the highest level in nine months. It compared with market expectations of 4.2 mil. Sales of single-family homes rose 0.8% to 3.75 mil. In the meantime, the median sales price for homes increased 1.2% from a year ago to $409,200, one of the weakest gains since mid-2023. With the sales increase, housing inventory fell by 5.9% from the previous month to 1.43 mil units, equal to 4.2 months of supply and the weakest since March.

This Week: The 10 year note this week down 3 bps, the 2 year note down 5 bps. FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon increased 28 bps. The DJIA -323, NASDAQ +113, S&P -92. Gold increased $48.00, crude oil quiet down $0.75. The dollar index increased 0.26, Bitcoin lost another 1,193.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.16% +3 bp

5 year note: 3.70% +3 bp

2 year note: 3.49% +2 bp

30 year bond: 4.83% +3 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: 99.65 -6 bp (+3 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.23 -9 bp (-3 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.0: 99.68 -5 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 157.56 +2.01 yen (worries over Japan’s bond market)

Dollar/Euro: $1.1720 -$0.0006

Dollar Index: 98.64 +21

Gold: $4,373.70 +$9.20

Bitcoin: 87,966 +3297

Crude Oil: $56.65 +$0.50

DJIA: 48,134.89 +183.04

NASDAQ: 23,307.62 +301.26

S&P 500: 6834.56 +59.80

SOFR Data 12/19: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.90829, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.07237, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.24562, INDEX: 1.22493707

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,115.36	9.58	0.31%	7.31	39.92%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	114,486.40	105.00	0.09%	5.58	42.71%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	3,993.17	5.78	0.14%	6.82	40.48%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1725	0.00	0.03%	5:20 PM
USD-JPY	155.5300	0.02	0.01%	5:21 PM
GBP-USD	1.3381	0.00	0.00%	5:21 PM
AUD-USD	0.6612	0.00	0.02%	5:21 PM
USD-CAD	1.3778	0.00	0.01%	5:21 PM
USD-CHF	0.7943	0.00	0.01%	5:21 PM

USD-MXN

17.9988

0.00

0.01%

5:25 PM

USD-CZK	20.7820	0.00	0.00%	5:27 PM
USD-SKK	25.6944	0.01	0.02%	5:26 PM
USD-PLN	3.5850	0.00	0.03%	5:27 PM
USD-HUF	330.6400	0.06	0.02%	5:27 PM
USD-RUB	79.9823	0.03	0.03%	5:26 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTS AND PRICING

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.500	-4.581	-4.491	-4.361
7.375	-4.133	-4.043	-3.913
7.250	-3.666	-3.576	-3.446
7.125	-3.498	-3.408	-3.278
6.999	-3.296	-3.206	-3.076
6.875	-2.899	-2.809	-2.679
6.750	-2.360	-2.270	-2.140
6.625	-2.883	-2.793	-2.663
6.500	-2.514	-2.424	-2.294
6.375	-1.944	-1.854	-1.724
6.250	-1.314	-1.224	-1.094
6.125	-1.743	-1.653	-1.523
5.999	-1.314	-1.224	-1.094
5.875	-0.676	-0.586	-0.456
5.750	0.029	0.119	0.249
5.625	-0.098	-0.008	0.122
5.500	0.387	0.477	0.607
5.375	1.186	1.276	1.406
5.250	2.040	2.130	2.260

ELITE 11-15 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.500	-3.708	-3.618	-3.488
6.375	-3.479	-3.389	-3.259
6.250	-2.977	-2.887	-2.757
6.125	-2.787	-2.697	-2.567
6.000	-2.518	-2.428	-2.298
5.875	-2.224	-2.134	-2.004
5.750	-1.739	-1.649	-1.519
5.625	-1.566	-1.476	-1.346
5.500	-1.297	-1.207	-1.077
5.375	-0.957	-0.867	-0.737
5.250	-0.439	-0.349	-0.219
5.125	-0.628	-0.538	-0.408
5.000	-0.265	-0.175	-0.045
4.875	0.132	0.222	0.352
4.750	0.673	0.763	0.893
4.625	0.676	0.766	0.896
4.500	1.084	1.174	1.304
4.375	1.488	1.578	1.708
4.250	2.053	2.143	2.273

30 Yr. Fixed

6.22% -0.05%

6.13%

7.26%

15 Yr. Fixed

5.74% -0.02%

5.6%

6.59%

30 Yr. Jumbo

6.40% -0.02%

6.1%

7.45%

Thu, Dec 18, 2025 3:44PM

Officially, there were 2 days at the end of November where the average lender’s 30yr fixed rates were just a hair lower (0.02% difference). Otherwise, today’s rates would be the lowest since late October. The improvement follows this morning’s release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation was so far below expectations that it raised new questions about just how much the government shutdown impacted data collection. The market still treated it as good news for rates, but most of the improvement was already in place before the data came out. CPI marked the last of 2025’s to… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.22%	-0.05	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.74%	-0.02	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	5.86%	-0.01	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.40%	-0.02	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	5.80%	-0.10	0.00
30 Yr. VA	5.87%	-0.02	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 12/18

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.21%	-0.01	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.47%	-0.07	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 12/18

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.33%	+0.01	0.60
15 Yr. Fixed	5.71%	-0.02	0.64
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.46%	+0.06	0.35
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 12/10

UMBS 30YR 5.0

99.75 +0.24

95.05

100.11

UMBS 30YR 5.5

101.30 +0.11

97.47

101.40

10 YR Treasury

4.116 -0.043

3.932

4.780

Big Drop in Annual CPI, But Only a Cautious Rally So Far

Thu, Dec 18, 2025 8:47AM

Great news for bonds on the inflation front this morning: Core annual inflation came in at 2.6% compared to a 3.0% forecast and 3.0% last time. It’s the lowest reading of the cycle and the first attempt to break below the stagnant sideways/elevated levels that have prevented more aggressive Fed rate cuts. Despite those facts, the bond market is only ra… (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 4.5	97.65	+0.30
UMBS 5.0	99.75	+0.24
UMBS 5.5	101.30	+0.11
GNMA 4.5	97.40	+0.19
GNMA 5.0	99.73	+0.22
GNMA 5.5	101.01	+0.11
Pricing as of: 12/18 4:01PM EST

US Treasury	Yield	Change
2 YR Treasury	3.460	-0.024
5 YR Treasury	3.659	-0.041
7 YR Treasury	3.869	-0.043
10 YR Treasury	4.116	-0.043
30 YR Treasury	4.799	-0.037
Pricing as of: 12/18 4:01PM EST