Market Wrap-up

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Its Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS release here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) for December 50K versus estimates of 60K.

November NFP revised lower from 64K to 56K.

October NFP revised lower from -105K to -173K.

Wages:

The Average Hourly Earnings rate increased by 12 cents to $37.02.

Average Hourly Earnings MOM increased by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Average Hourly Earnings YOY increased by 3.8% versus estimates of 3.6%.

Employment:

Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.4% from 4.6% versus estimates of 4.5%.

The U6 Underemployment Rate jumped from -5% to 13%.

Labor Force Participation Rate dropped from 62.5% to 62.4%.

Consumer Sentiment: The Prelim Jan UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was close to expectations with a reading of 54.0 versus estimates of 53.5. The 1YR Inflation Expectations remained at 4.2% but the 5 YR Inflation Expectations increased from 3.2% to 3.4%.

This whole week markets were centered on employment data, ADP, weekly claims and today’s Dec BLS employment report. After all were digested, this afternoon the week is ending changed in the Treasury markets. But those releases took a back seat yesterday when Pres. Trump directed Fannie and Freddie to purchase $200B of MBS mortgage securities a very helpful assist to the real estate and mortgage markets. As for the employment situation, the data over the last three days suggests the employment sector remains OK, the unemployment rate fell to 4.4% in Dec from 4.6%… no rate cut outlooks in the releases.

The announcement from Trump happened mid-afternoon, the MBS market (Fannie and Freddie) showed little initial reaction. At 4 pm yesterday the 5.0 Fannie coupon was down 12 bps on the session, prices began inching higher after most participants had left for the day. This morning, we woke to see that 5.0 coupon up 95 bps from yesterday’s close. There was increased volatility all day in the MBS markets while treasuries showed very little movement, the rate for a 30 year fixed mortgage at its best this morning 5.99% a level we didn’t expect unless the 10 year yield declined.

MBSs were quite volatile today while the long end of the Treasury curve ended unchanged, the 2 year note saw the worst performance increasing 6 bps today. Lenders in MBSs set morning prices based on the huge price increases, by this afternoon most to the knee jerk had subsided pushing lenders to re-reprice lower, from +59 bps at 9:30 am to +22 bps at 4 pm.

Next week’s calendar: Monday $58B 3 year note auction, $39B 10 year auction. Tuesday $22B 30 year bond auction. Dec NFIB small business optimism index, Dec CPI, Sept new home sales, Dec Treasury budget. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, Nov retail sales, Nov PPI, Dec existing home sales. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Nov import and export prices. Friday Dec industrial production and capacity utilization.

This Week: The 10 year note -1 bp, the 2 year note +6 bps, FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon +70 bps. The DJIA this week +1,122, NASDAQ +435, S&P +108. Gold +$176.00, crude oil +$1.73. The dollar index +0.69, bitcoin +94.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.17% -1 bp

5 year note: 3.76% +2 bp

2 year note: 3.54% +5 bp

30 year bond: 4.82% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: 100.36 +24 bp (+6 bp from 9:30; +59 bps from yesterday’s close)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.59 +19 bp (-11 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.0: 100.21 +43 bp (+26 bps from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 157.90 +1.03 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1636 -$0.0025

Dollar Index: 99.12 +0.18

Gold: $4,514.40 +$53.70

Bitcoin: 90,171 -675

Crude Oil: $58.95 +$1.19

DJIA: 49,504.07 +237.94

NASDAQ: 23,671.35 +191.33

S&P 500: 6966.28 +44.82

SOFR Data 01/09: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.71871, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.96813, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.16974, INDEX: 1.22759506

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,233.92	78.18	2.36%	7.42	45.05%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	119,960.90	2,464.10	2.01%	7.21	47.64%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	4,172.22	93.25	2.19%	7.65	46.33%

 

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1655	0.00	0.04%	7:17 PM
USD-JPY	156.9500	0.08	0.05%	7:16 PM
GBP-USD	1.3433	0.00	0.04%	7:17 PM
AUD-USD	0.6697	0.00	0.03%	7:17 PM
USD-CAD	1.3869	0.00	0.04%	7:16 PM
USD-CHF	0.7992	0.00	0.04%	7:17

 

USD-CZK	20.8388	0.00	0.02%	7:21 PM
USD-SKK	25.8454	0.01	0.03%	7:21 PM
USD-PLN	3.6138	0.00	0.05%	7:21 PM
USD-HUF	330.4600	0.24	0.07%	7:21 PM
USD-RUB	80.5000	0.06	0.07%	7:14 PM

 

USD-MXN

17.9805

0.01

0.04%

7:23 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

CONVENTIONAL PRODUCTS AND PRICING

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
7.500	-4.546		-4.456		-4.326
7.375	-4.145		-4.055		-3.925
7.250	-3.675		-3.585		-3.455
7.125	-3.653		-3.563		-3.433
6.999	-3.413		-3.323		-3.193
6.875	-2.986		-2.896		-2.766
6.750	-2.438		-2.348		-2.218
6.625	-3.049		-2.959		-2.829
6.500	-2.689		-2.599		-2.469
6.375	-2.120		-2.030		-1.900
6.250	-1.501		-1.411		-1.281
6.125	-1.973		-1.883		-1.753
5.999	-1.569		-1.479		-1.349
5.875	-0.924		-0.834		-0.704
5.750	-0.225		-0.135		-0.005
5.625	-0.385		-0.295		-0.165
5.500	0.077		0.167		0.297
5.375	0.873		0.963		1.093
5.250	1.732		1.822		1.952
ELITE 11-15 YEAR
RATE		15 DAY		30 DAY		45 DAY
6.500		-3.784		-3.694		-3.564
6.375		-3.516		-3.426		-3.296
6.250		-3.036		-2.946		-2.816
6.125		-2.889		-2.799		-2.669
6.000		-2.637		-2.547		-2.417
5.875		-2.335		-2.245		-2.115
5.750		-1.848		-1.758		-1.628
5.625		-1.823		-1.733		-1.603
5.500		-1.561		-1.471		-1.341
5.375		-1.211		-1.121		-0.991
5.250		-0.692		-0.602		-0.472
5.125		-0.707		-0.617		-0.487
5.000		-0.338		-0.248		-0.118
4.875		0.053		0.143		0.273
4.750		0.595		0.685		0.815
4.625		0.867		0.957		1.087
4.500		1.277		1.367		1.497
4.375		1.682		1.772		1.902
4.250		2.245		2.335		2.465

 

30 Yr. Fixed 6.21% +0.02% 6.13% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.74% +0.01% 5.6% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.35% +0.00% 6.1% 7.45%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jan 8, 2026

Mortgage Rates Modestly Higher on Thursday. Friday’s Risks Are Bigger Thu, Jan 8, 2026 4:05PM Mortgage rates were just a hair higher for the average lender on Thursday. The underlying bond market lost some ground following a stronger weekly Jobless Claims report and in sympathy with global bond market weakness overnight.  Because rates are based on bonds, when bonds are weaker, rates move higher. There are many different economic reports that deal with the jobs market, but none more important than the Employment Situation released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics–the one typically referred to simply as “the jobs report.”  This month’s jobs report will be released at 8:30a… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.21% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.74% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.84% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.35% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.73% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.85% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 1/8   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.16% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.46% +0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/8   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.33% +0.01 0.60 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.02 0.64 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.46% +0.06 0.35 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 12/10

UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.71 -0.13 95.05 100.11 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.40 -0.10 97.47 101.52 10 YR Treasury 4.182 +0.027 3.932 4.780

No Help From Jobless Claims or Europe Thu, Jan 8, 2026 9:23AM US bonds have been taking clear cues from Europe in overnight trading recently. Today’s example involved a 3bp sell-off on both sides of the Atlantic. The 8:30am Jobless Claims data may be garnering more volume, but it has only added modestly to the morning’s selling pressure so far.  (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.50 -0.18 UMBS 5.0 99.71 -0.13 UMBS 5.5 101.40 -0.10 GNMA 4.5 97.44 -0.12 GNMA 5.0 99.75 -0.13 GNMA 5.5 101.11 +0.01 Pricing as of: 1/8 4:31PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.488 +0.017 5 YR Treasury 3.736 +0.033 7 YR Treasury 3.949 +0.036 10 YR Treasury 4.182 +0.027 30 YR Treasury 4.857 +0.025 Pricing as of: 1/8 4:31PM EST