Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 January Coupon is down -10 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Rosie the Riveter: December Industrial Production was better than expected, 0.4% versus estimates of 0.1%, Capacity Utilization 76.1% versus 76%.

The January NAHB Home Builders’ Sentiment dropped from 39 down to 37.

It happened this afternoon, the bellwether 10 year note after weeks of hammering against 4.20% broke above it. There wasn’t any hard specific news today but as we have been noting the belief of more rate cuts has been lessening over the past few weeks. The data the Fed focuses on, employment and inflation haven’t been trending in directions that would push the Fed to lower the FF rate. Employment is holding, inflation is holding, both not good for another rate cut. Even with headlines of tensions increasing globally it isn’t sufficient to keep safety movement into US treasuries.

The 10 year note breached 4.20% this afternoon, ending the session at 4.23% ahead of the three-day weekend. The note now at its highest rate since the beginning of last September. The break above 4.20% will be tested next Tuesday, unless the note falls back below 4.20% on Tuesday it will add additional confirmation rates are more likely headed higher than lower. Technically the note must fall back to under 4.20% to say today’s breach was an anomaly.

Next week; Monday all US markets closed. Tuesday no scheduled data. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage apps, Dec housing starts and permits, Sept construction spending. Thursday key inflation release with PCE, personal income and spending, weekly jobless claims, Q3 GDP. Friday January U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index. Also, next week the Supreme Court may rule on Pres. Trump’s tariffs saying they are not legal under the present order, the argument is that Congress only has the power to levy tariffs.

This Week: The `10 year 4.23% +6 bp, 2 year note +7 bps. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon -36 bps in price. DJIA -145, NASDAQ -156, S&P -26. Gold this week -$76.00, crude oil +$0.56. The dollar index +0.25, bitcoin +4,830.

10 year note at 4:00 pm

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.23% +6 bp

5 year note: 3.83% +5 bp

2 year note: 3.61% +4 bp

30 year bond: 4.84% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: 100.00 -16 bp (-13 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.31 -11 bp (-7 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.0: 99.93 +3 bp (-1 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 158.10 -0.53 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1598 -$0.0011

Dollar Index: 99.37 +0.05

Gold: $4,590.50 -$33.20

Bitcoin: 95,101 -94

Crude Oil: $59.51 +$0.32

DJIA: 49,359.33 -83.11

NASDAQ: 23,515.39 -14.63

S&P 500: 6940.00 -4.47

SOFR Data 01/16: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.70200, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.92439, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.14264, INDEX: 1.22846518

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,306.40	37.46	1.15%	5.40	44.67%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	122,335.60	1,013.30	0.84%	6.04	47.60%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	4,251.76	39.16	0.93%	5.72	45.72%	11:15 A

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1609	0.00	0.00%	5:06 PM
USD-JPY	158.6300	0.00	0.00%	5:06 PM
GBP-USD	1.3380	0.00	0.01%	5:05 PM
AUD-USD	0.6697	0.00	0.03%	5:06 PM
USD-CAD	1.3891	0.00	0.00%	5:06 PM
USD-CHF	0.8032	0.00	0.00%	5:06 PM

 

USD-CZK	20.9125	0.00	0.02%	5:09 PM
USD-SKK	25.9504	0.00	0.00%	5:10 PM
USD-PLN	3.6279	0.00	0.01%	5:09 PM
USD-HUF	331.9000	0.01	0.00%	5:09 PM
USD-RUB	78.0051	0.00	0.00%	5:05 PM

 

USD-MXN

17.6522

0.00

0.02%

5:06 PM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

 

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.250	-3.095	-3.005	-2.875
7.125	-3.077	-2.987	-2.857
6.999	-2.832	-2.742	-2.612
6.875	-2.449	-2.359	-2.229
6.750	-1.986	-1.896	-1.766
6.625	-2.687	-2.597	-2.467
6.500	-2.370	-2.280	-2.150
6.375	-1.821	-1.731	-1.601
6.250	-1.224	-1.134	-1.004
6.125	-1.891	-1.801	-1.671
5.999	-1.482	-1.392	-1.262
5.875	-0.867	-0.777	-0.647
5.750	-0.177	-0.087	0.043
5.625	-0.583	-0.493	-0.363
5.500	-0.096	-0.006	0.124
5.375	0.625	0.715	0.845
5.250	1.423	1.513	1.643
5.125	1.928	2.018	2.148
5.000	2.532	2.622	2.752

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.500	-3.280	-3.190	-3.060
6.375	-3.019	-2.929	-2.799
6.250	-2.561	-2.471	-2.341
6.125	-2.620	-2.530	-2.400
6.000	-2.376	-2.286	-2.156
5.875	-2.065	-1.975	-1.845
5.750	-1.576	-1.486	-1.356
5.625	-1.681	-1.591	-1.461
5.500	-1.419	-1.329	-1.199
5.375	-1.070	-0.980	-0.850
5.250	-0.560	-0.470	-0.340
5.125	-0.616	-0.526	-0.396
5.000	-0.255	-0.165	-0.035
4.875	0.135	0.225	0.355
4.750	0.679	0.769	0.899
4.625	0.988	1.078	1.208
4.500	1.390	1.480	1.610
4.375	1.799	1.889	2.019
4.250	2.352	2.442	2.572

 

30 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.03% 6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.57% -0.01% 5.55% 6.52% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% +0.00% 6.1% 7.45%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jan 15, 2026

Mortgage Rates Higher For Some Lenders and Lower For Others Thu, Jan 15, 2026 3:25PM Mortgage rates moved modestly lower for the average lender today, but higher for others. The distinction is whether the lender in question made a late-day adjustment yesterday afternoon.  At the time, the underlying market for mortgage bonds was improving somewhat sharply. This prompted several lenders to drop rates before the end of business. Those lenders had to bump rates back up this morning as the bond market was in weaker territory this morning.  Other lenders–those who didn’t make any changes yesterday afternoon–were able to nudge rates modestly lower today as this morning… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.57% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.70% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.72% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 1/15   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.06% -0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.38% -0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/15   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.18% -0.07 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.04 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.42% +0.10 0.43 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/14

UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.23 -0.18 95.36 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.42 -0.10 97.76 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.159 +0.027 3.932 4.655

Stronger Jobless Claims Leads to Early Selling Thu, Jan 15, 2026 8:40AM The weekly jobless claims data (not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report) is hit and miss when it comes to its propensity to move the bond market. On occasions where the results fall far from the forecast, we tend to see moderate reactions. Odds increase when the headline breaks under the psychological level of 200k.  With that, today’s 198k … (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.41 -0.20 UMBS 5.0 100.23 -0.18 UMBS 5.5 101.42 -0.10 GNMA 4.5 98.00 -0.24 GNMA 5.0 100.06 -0.10 GNMA 5.5 101.06 -0.08 Pricing as of: 1/15 4:01PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.564 +0.053 5 YR Treasury 3.762 +0.054 7 YR Treasury 3.953 +0.045 10 YR Treasury 4.159 +0.027 30 YR Treasury 4.786 +0.004 Pricing as of: 1/15 4:01PM EST