Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 February Coupon is up +10 BPS at 2:50 PM ET.

Inflation Nation: December (delayed) headline PPI was much higher than expected, up 0.5% versus estimates of 0.2% on a MOM basis and 3.0% versus estimates of 2.7% on a YOY basis. Same story for Core (ex food and energy). MOM it was up 0.7% versus estimates of 0.3% and YOY it was up 3.3% versus estimates of 2.7%.

Rosie the Riveter: The January Chicago PMI broke into positive territory for the first time in a very, very, very long time and was welcome news for the manufacturing sector with a reading of 54.0 versus estimates of 43.8.

The Talking Fed: President Trump has nominated Fed Governor Kevin Warsh.

 

Another week, another week with no change in interest rates. The FOMC and Powell on Wednesday had little to no market reaction in either interest rates or the stock indexes. December PPI, wholesale inflation, released this morning were higher than estimates, also no reaction. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for the head of the Fed today, no reaction. Markets view Warsh as a more hawkish pick who would support lower interest rates, though less aggressively than other potential candidates, Trump now has three FOMC members that lean to lower rates, Marin and Fed Governor Bowman.

We overlooked posting the Jan Chicago purchasing mgrs. index this morning, the index thought to be 43.8 up from 42.7 in the prior month increased to 54.0 the first time above 50, the level between expansion and contraction for the first time in over two years. Employment rose 17.5 points to its highest level since December 2024, while new orders surged 15.8 points to levels not seen since March 2022. Production, backlogs, and inventories rose, while supplier deliveries slowed and prices paid fell nine points to a one-year low. More evidence that the economy is holding well; Powell mentioned it at his press conference.

Next week is employment week. Monday Jan ISM manufacturing index. Tuesday Dec JOLTS job openings. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, Jan ADP private jobs, Jan ISM service sector index. Thursday weekly jobless claims. Friday January employment statistics, Dec consumer credit data.

The Senate failed to pass the appropriation bills today, so far. Even if the deal is passed, at least a short shutdown is all but certain because the House of Representatives isn’t scheduled to return to Washington until Monday. A partial shutdown of federal operations will begin at 12:01 am tomorrow morning.

After all of the hype this week about the rapid increase in gold prices, today gold fell $460.00, buy the rumor, sell the fact. A buying opportunity, gold down $104.00 this week.

Talk about paper and bureaucracy; The Department of Justice is releasing 3 million additional pages of documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, along with 2,000 videos and about 180,000 images.

This week: The 10 year note rate +1 bp, the 2 year note declined 8 bps. Fannie 5.0 30 year coupon increased 9 bps. The DJIA -207, NASDAQ -39, S&P+23. Gold down $104.00, crude oil +$4.67, The dollar index -0.50, bitcoin -5,596.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.25% +1bp

5 year note: 3.80% -2 bp

2 year note: 3.53% -3 bp

30 year bond: 4.88% +2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.0: 99.96 -10 bp (-3 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.39 -5 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 5.0: 99.97 -7 bp (-5 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yen: 154.63 +1.53 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1858 -$0.0114

Dollar Index: 97.08 +0.80

Gold: $4,891.00 -$463.60

Bitcoin: 83,641 -450

Crude Oil: $65.86 +$0.44

DJIA: 48,892.47 -179.09

NASDAQ: 23,461.82 -223.30

S&P 500: 6939.03 -29.98

SOFR Data 01/30: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.67924, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.83509, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.08844, INDEX: 1.23020892

DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.08844, INDEX: 1.23020892

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,372.98	8.40	0.25%	6.24	38.12%	10:30 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	125,063.00	65.80	0.05%	6.93	42.67%	10:30 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	4,327.51	3.08	0.07%	5.90	39.40%	10:30 A

 

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1891	0.01	0.68%	10:50 AM
USD-JPY	154.5500	1.44	0.94%	10:50 AM
GBP-USD	1.3720	0.01	0.64%	10:49 AM
AUD-USD	0.7008	0.00	0.57%	10:50 AM
USD-CAD	1.3535	0.00	0.33%	10:50 AM
USD-CHF	0.7701	0.01	0.76%	10:50 AM

 

USD-CZK	20.4614	0.14	0.70%	10:52 AM
USD-SKK	25.3246	0.16	0.63%	10:53 AM
USD-PLN	3.5396	0.03	0.77%	10:52 AM
USD-HUF	320.0800	2.17	0.68%	10:53 AM
USD-RUB	76.0584	0.87	1.15%	10:52 AM

 

USD-MXN

17.3288

0.11

0.62%

10:53 AM

 

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

 

ELITE 21-30 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.375	-3.607	-3.517	-3.387
7.250	-3.152	-3.062	-2.932
7.125	-3.222	-3.132	-3.002
6.999	-3.024	-2.934	-2.804
6.875	-2.585	-2.495	-2.365
6.750	-2.064	-1.974	-1.844
6.625	-2.786	-2.696	-2.566
6.500	-2.470	-2.380	-2.250
6.375	-1.900	-1.810	-1.680
6.250	-1.279	-1.189	-1.059
6.125	-1.771	-1.681	-1.551
5.999	-1.394	-1.304	-1.174
5.875	-0.738	-0.648	-0.518
5.750	-0.038	0.052	0.182
5.625	-0.265	-0.175	-0.045
5.500	0.177	0.267	0.397

 

ELITE 11-15 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
6.625	-3.409	-3.319	-3.189
6.500	-3.217	-3.127	-2.997
6.375	-2.959	-2.869	-2.739
6.250	-2.479	-2.389	-2.259
6.125	-2.445	-2.355	-2.225
6.000	-2.188	-2.098	-1.968
5.875	-1.889	-1.799	-1.669
5.750	-1.397	-1.307	-1.177
5.625	-1.561	-1.471	-1.341
5.500	-1.285	-1.195	-1.065
5.375	-0.940	-0.850	-0.720
5.250	-0.415	-0.325	-0.195
5.125	-0.333	-0.243	-0.113
5.000	0.044	0.134	0.264
4.875	0.432	0.522	0.652
4.750	0.979	1.069	1.199

 

 

 

30 Yr. Fixed 6.16% +0.00% 6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.00% 5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.35% +0.01% 6.1% 7.45%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jan 30, 2026

Mortgage Rates Sidestep Into The Weekend Fri, Jan 30, 2026 4:10PM While there was certainly plenty of volatility elsewhere in the financial market this week, there was almost none to be found in mortgage rates. Wed, Thu, and Fri all recorded the exact same level in MND’s 30yr fixed rate index–something that only happens a few times every year. Rates are based on bonds and bonds are waiting for more serious inspiration after undergoing a bit of elevated volatility at the beginning of last week. The present week has been all about consolidating and settling into a narrower range as we wait for the more important economic data on deck next week. (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.16% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.79% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.35% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.61% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.81% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 1/30   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.10% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.49% +0.05 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/29   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 1/28

UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.98 -0.06 95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.41 -0.02 98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.242 +0.006 3.932 4.608

Why Don’t Bonds Care About The Massive Miss in PPI? Fri, Jan 30, 2026 10:03AM PPI… The Producer Price Index. It sounds a lot like CPI because both are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and they share lots of methodology and structure. Given that CPI has been responsible for some of the biggest bond market reactions, you’d be well within your rights to expect a big sell-off after seeing something like Core PPI coming in at … (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.97 -0.11 UMBS 5.0 99.98 -0.06 UMBS 5.5 101.41 -0.02 GNMA 4.5 97.77 +0.08 GNMA 5.0 99.98 -0.06 GNMA 5.5 101.09 -0.02   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.526 -0.034 5 YR Treasury 3.796 -0.020 7 YR Treasury 4.017 +0.035 10 YR Treasury 4.242 +0.006 30 YR Treasury 4.875 +0.020 Pricing as of: 1/30 4:31PM EST