Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 March Coupon is up +7 BPS at 3:07 PM ET.
Inflation Nation: The Delayed January (we never even got October) headline CPI was a little lighter than expected. MOM it was up 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3% and YOY it was up 2.4% versus estimates of 2.5%. However, Core (ex Food and Energy) CPI matched market expectations, up 0.3% versus estimates of 0.3% and YOY it was up 2.5% versus estimates of 2.5%.
On Deck for Tomorrow: ***The bond market is CLOSED Monday for President’s Day***
CPI inflation this morning showed inflation isn’t increasing as the Fed has been concerned about. The reaction dropped the 10 year note 5 bps adding to the 8 bp decline yesterday on an increase in weekly jobless claims and continuing claims. Wednesday’s January BLS employment reported more jobs than forecasts, that pushed interest rates slightly higher. Earlier this week on Tuesday Dec retail sales reported flat sales for the month that should have seen improvement because of gift-buying.
It has been a big week for economic data; the 10 year note yield down 15 bps also saw some safe haven movement as the US/Iran situation heated up and growing concerns of a credit crisis that may cause problems in the debt market with the over-shoot increases in AI investments, particularly private debt. The short end also improved, down 8 bps.
Next Week’s Calendar: Monday markets closed for President’s Day. Tuesday Feb. Empire State manufacturing index, Feb NAHB housing market index. Wednesday weekly MBA mortgage applications, Dec building permits and starts, Dec durable goods orders, Jan industrial production and capacity utilization, FOMC minutes from the Jan meeting. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Feb Philadelphia Fed business index, Dec US trade balance, January pending home sales. Friday Dec PCE inflation, Q4 GP, Dec personal spending and income, Dec new home sales, U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
This Week: The 10 year note yield -15 bp, 2 year note -9 bp. FNMA 5.0 30 year coupon tis week +28 bps. The DJIA this week-615, NASDAQ -484, S&P -86. Gold increased $84.00, crude oil -$0.76. The dollar index -0.61, bitcoin -1,546.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.06% -4 bp
5 year note: 3.61% -5 bp
2 year note: 3.41% -5 bp
30 year bond: 4.70% -4 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: 100.35 +12 bp (+2 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.55 +5 bp (-7 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 5.0: 100.45 +9 bp (+2 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 152.73 unch
Dollar/Euro: $1.1870 unch
Dollar Index: 96.91 unch
Gold: $5,050.20 +$101.80
Bitcoin: 68,737 +3395
Crude Oil: $62.56 -$0.28
DJIA: 49,500.93 +48.95
NASDAQ: 22,546.67 -50.48
S&P 500: 6836.16 +3.40
SOFR Data 02/13: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.65819, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.78126, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 4.03392, INDEX: 1.23196032
POLSKA
| WIG20:IND
|
3,417.49 | 4.75 | 0.14% | 4.16 | 33.04% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
126,506.60 | 6.10 | 0.00% | 3.87 | 37.84% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
4,378.42 | 4.32 | 0.10% | 3.53 | 33.96% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
|
EUR-USD
|
1.1868 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
USD-JPY
|
152.7000 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
GBP-USD
|
1.3651 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
AUD-USD
|
0.7073 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
USD-CAD
|
1.3617 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
USD-CHF
|
0.7679 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
USD-MXN
|
17.1701 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
USD-CZK
|
20.4328 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
USD-SKK
|
25.3847 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
USD-PLN
|
3.5497 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
USD-HUF
|
319.1300 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
|
USD-RUB
|
76.9519 |
|
|
02/13/2026 |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | |||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.250 | -3.372 | -3.282 | -3.152 |
| 7.125 | -3.284 | -3.194 | -3.064 |
| 6.999 | -3.057 | -2.967 | -2.837 |
| 6.875 | -2.634 | -2.544 | -2.414 |
| 6.750 | -2.138 | -2.048 | -1.918 |
| 6.625 | -2.838 | -2.748 | -2.618 |
| 6.500 | -2.520 | -2.430 | -2.300 |
| 6.375 | -1.961 | -1.871 | -1.741 |
| 6.250 | -1.353 | -1.263 | -1.133 |
| 6.125 | -2.003 | -1.913 | -1.783 |
| 5.999 | -1.622 | -1.532 | -1.402 |
| 5.875 | -0.990 | -0.900 | -0.770 |
| 5.750 | -0.296 | -0.206 | -0.076 |
| 5.625 | -0.733 | -0.643 | -0.513 |
| 5.500 | -0.269 | -0.179 | -0.049 |
| 5.375 | 0.470 | 0.560 | 0.690 |
| 5.250 | 1.307 | 1.397 | 1.527 |
| 5.125 | 1.227 | 1.317 | 1.447 |
| 5.000 | 1.793 | 1.883 | 2.013 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | |||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.500 | -3.300 | -3.210 | -3.080 |
| 6.375 | -3.038 | -2.948 | -2.818 |
| 6.250 | -2.565 | -2.475 | -2.345 |
| 6.125 | -2.705 | -2.615 | -2.485 |
| 6.000 | -2.449 | -2.359 | -2.229 |
| 5.875 | -2.149 | -2.059 | -1.929 |
| 5.750 | -1.661 | -1.571 | -1.441 |
| 5.625 | -1.756 | -1.666 | -1.536 |
| 5.500 | -1.480 | -1.390 | -1.260 |
| 5.375 | -1.136 | -1.046 | -0.916 |
| 5.250 | -0.618 | -0.528 | -0.398 |
| 5.125 | -0.705 | -0.615 | -0.485 |
| 5.000 | -0.333 | -0.243 | -0.113 |
| 4.875 | 0.054 | 0.144 | 0.274 |
| 4.750 | 0.598 | 0.688 | 0.818 |
| 4.625 | 0.856 | 0.946 | 1.076 |
| 4.500 | 1.269 | 1.359 | 1.489 |
| 4.375 | 1.672 | 1.762 | 1.892 |
| 4.250 | 2.235 | 2.325 | 2.455 |
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