“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”
Friday, February 27, 2026 4:00 PM
Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 March Coupon is up +11 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.
Inflation Nation: January Producer Prices were higher than expected with the headline PPI MOM up 0.5% versus estimates of 03%. However the YOY PPI dropped from 3.0% to 2.9%. Core (ex food and energy) PPI really shot up on a MOM basis, up 0.8% versus estimates of 0.3%. YOY, it was up 3.6% versus estimates of 3.0%.
Rosie the Riveter: The Feb Chicago PMI was much stronger than expected, 57.7 versus estimates of 52.5 and remained solidly above 50 for the second straight month.
Bob the Builder: Construction Spending for December rose by 0.3% which matched expectations.
Interest rates declined last night on safety moves over Iran, increasing weakness in equity markets, the impact of AI on employment, and growing concerns about the private debt market.
This morning January PPI inflation much higher than estimates, while not a prime measure of inflation it does point to potential of inflation increasing. Yesterday’s weekly jobless claims were less than expected, add the higher inflation data today and markets are continuing to debate what when and if the Fed will lower rates. The fed funds futures market now sees the likelihood of a June rate cut as a toss-up. It is going to be a toss-up from now until June with three months of data to digest.
February Chicago purchasing managers index this morning at 57.7 in February from 54 in the previous month, firmly above expectations that it would slow to 52.8, to capitulate as the second expansion since November of 2023 and reflect the sharpest pace of growth in activity in the US since May of 2022.
Through the month of February there were just five sessions that ended with the 10 year note up on the day. US and global markets have a lot of heavy lifting now; inflation, jobs, geopolitical concerns, and increasing government debt pulling inter day trading like a tug of war.
Next week’s calendar. The elephant is next week Friday’s February employment report. Monday February ISM manufacturing index. Wednesday weekly mortgage applications, February ADP private jobs, February ISM services index. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Q4 preliminary productivity and until labor costs, January import and export prices. Friday February employment data, January retail sales, January consumer credit. Sunday starts day light savings time, lose and hour of sleep.
This Week: 10 note yield this week -11 bps, the 2 year note -10 bps. FNMA 5.50 30 year coupon prices +11 bp. The DJIA -648, NASDAQ -218, S&P -31.Gold increased $158.00 on safety investments, crude oil steady $0.75. The dollar index lower by 0.22, Bitcoin dropped another 1,996.
Talks with Iran wrapped up without a deal and both sides still far apart on key issues. Iran has a huge pill to swallow and its not likely to get it down. Iran must destroy its three main nuclear sites—at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan—and deliver all of its remaining enriched uranium to the U.S. The agreement must have no timetable; it must be eternal. Iran must not have the ability to develop weapons capable of reaching the US. Two dozen jet fighters left the US for the mid-east today according to news reports. The tensions are high but not at a breaking point, looks like the back and forth will go on a while but with tensions up it will be a continuing support for long term US interest rates.
There are more countries off-loading US debt as the dollar weakens and debt servicing becomes more an issue, most of the selling coming from countries that are not linked close to the US. Allies bought $463.9B of Treasuries in 2025, the biggest annual net purchase since at least 2016, according to Bloomberg’s analysis of US Treasury data. Non-aliegned countries sold $673B of Treasuries between 2016 and 2025. The pivot away from US government bonds has gained momentum as President Trump’s unpredictable decision-making rattles investors, even though most market participants still say US debt is likely to remain the world’s benchmark safe asset.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 3.96% -5 bp
5 year note: 3.52% -6 bp
2 year note: 3.39% -5 bp
30 year bond: 4.63 -3 bp
30 year FNMA 5.0: 100.44 +9 bp (-2 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 101.61 +4 bp (+4 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 5.0: 100.35 +6 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 156.00 -0.14 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1826 +$0.0027
Dollar Index: 97.57 -0.22
Gold: $5,276.90 +$82.70
Bitcoin: 65,571 -1843
Crude Oil: $67.24 +$2.03
DJIA: 48,977.92 -521.28
NASDAQ: 22,668.21 -210.17
S&P 500: 6878.88 -29.98
SOFR Data 02/27: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.66889, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.73371, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.98027, INDEX: 1.23372034
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
3,440.02 | 8.22 | 0.24% | 2.22 | 32.82% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
126,786.70 | 101.50 | 0.08% | 1.65 | 37.24% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
4,400.68 | 3.99 | 0.09% | 1.94 | 33.62% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted | |||||||
| EUR-USD
|
1.1812 | 0.00 | 0.13% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
| USD-JPY
|
156.0500 | 0.08 | 0.05% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
| GBP-USD
|
1.3482 | 0.00 | 0.00% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
| AUD-USD
|
0.7118 | 0.00 | 0.18% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
| USD-CAD
|
1.3640 | 0.00 | 0.30% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
| USD-CHF
|
0.7693 | 0.00 | 0.63% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
| USD-CZK
|
20.5256 | 0.03 | 0.13% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
| USD-SKK
|
25.5036 | 0.03 | 0.13% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
| USD-PLN
|
3.5751 | 0.00 | 0.11% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
| USD-HUF
|
318.9700 | 0.22 | 0.07% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
| USD-RUB
|
77.0237 | 0.13 | 0.17% | 4:38 PM | |||||||
| USD-MXN
|
17.2268 | 0.03 | 0.18% | 4:59 PM | |||||||
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| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | |||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 7.125 | -3.260 | -3.170 | -3.040 |
| 6.999 | -2.938 | -2.848 | -2.718 |
| 6.875 | -2.524 | -2.434 | -2.304 |
| 6.750 | -2.052 | -1.962 | -1.832 |
| 6.625 | -2.767 | -2.677 | -2.547 |
| 6.500 | -2.423 | -2.333 | -2.203 |
| 6.375 | -1.888 | -1.798 | -1.668 |
| 6.250 | -1.307 | -1.217 | -1.087 |
| 6.125 | -2.036 | -1.946 | -1.816 |
| 5.999 | -1.608 | -1.518 | -1.388 |
| 5.875 | -1.008 | -0.918 | -0.788 |
| 5.750 | -0.342 | -0.252 | -0.122 |
| 5.625 | -0.950 | -0.860 | -0.730 |
| 5.500 | -0.480 | -0.390 | -0.260 |
| 5.375 | 0.235 | 0.325 | 0.455 |
| 5.250 | 1.007 | 1.097 | 1.227 |
| 5.125 | 0.505 | 0.595 | 0.725 |
| 5.000 | 1.124 | 1.214 | 1.344 |
| 4.875 | 1.961 | 2.051 | 2.181 |
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | |||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY |
| 6.500 | -3.438 | -3.348 | -3.218 |
| 6.375 | -3.184 | -3.094 | -2.964 |
| 6.250 | -2.725 | -2.635 | -2.505 |
| 6.125 | -2.696 | -2.606 | -2.476 |
| 6.000 | -2.456 | -2.366 | -2.236 |
| 5.875 | -2.167 | -2.077 | -1.947 |
| 5.750 | -1.687 | -1.597 | -1.467 |
| 5.625 | -1.701 | -1.611 | -1.481 |
| 5.500 | -1.432 | -1.342 | -1.212 |
| 5.375 | -1.128 | -1.038 | -0.908 |
| 5.250 | -0.623 | -0.533 | -0.403 |
| 5.125 | -0.601 | -0.511 | -0.381 |
| 5.000 | -0.269 | -0.179 | -0.049 |
| 4.875 | 0.109 | 0.199 | 0.329 |
| 4.750 | 0.646 | 0.736 | 0.866 |
| 4.625 | 0.624 | 0.714 | 0.844 |
| 4.500 | 1.013 | 1.103 | 1.233 |
| 4.375 | 1.415 | 1.505 | 1.635 |