Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 April Coupon is down -12 BPS at 3:07 PM ET.
Glass Half Empty: The final/revised March UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was dropped from 55.5 down to 53.3 versus estimates of 54.0. 1YR Inflation Expectations jumped from 3.4% to 3.8% and 5 YR Inflation Expectations remained at 3.2%.
Bye-Bye 5.5: We will be switching to the 6.00 Coupon for Monday’s open.
Interest rates rose this week, the stock indexes lower, crude oil higher. Traders and markets waiting how the US moves forward with Iran, fearing inflation and economic slowing. We are on a wait situation on How Trump will proceed, giving Iran 10 days (nine days now). If the US moves to introduce troops markets will continue to move in their current direction.
Interest rates made another new recent high this morning, but rates eased back down this afternoon ahead of the weekend, no fundamental news motivated the small improvement, traders don’t like being too exposed for two days.
Next week the countdown continues before the US takes another step. A lot of division in the US and globally, continue to press on and once and for all cripple Iran for years, or repeat the past and step away. Which ever direction, it will have major impacts for the economy, oil prices, and mortgage rates. Personally, I go for moving forward, riding the world of the most terrorist regime in the world for longer than many of us fully remember.
One of the most astute economists, Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted the 2008 global financial crisis, told CNBC this morning Trump is likely to escalate the war with Iran, risking “1970s stagflation” if it does not go as planned, rejecting the view that Trump was “looking desperately for an off-ramp” to end the war. Markets have appeared optimistic in recent days about a potential resolution to the conflict. Summing, it is a huge unknown, moving troops will rile many, not moving troops will also rile many.
Next week is employment week, normally a big week for traders and investors, but this round will be directed by conflict decisions. 7K troops on the way, mine sweepers on the way, Iran’s neighbors in the mid-east on their way. A lot of angst on Wall Street, Trump originally said 4 to 6 weeks now appears much longer and with fatalities.
This Week: 10 year note +5 bps, 2 year note +2 bps; FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon -22 bps. The DJIA -410, NASDAQ -700, S&P -137. Gold increased $6.00, crude oil $1.55/barrel. The dollar index increased 0.53, bitcoin -3,814.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.44% +2 bp
5 year note: 4.07% -3 bp
2 year note: 3.91% -8 bp
30 year bond: 4.98% +4 bp
30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.84 +2 bp (+23 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.57 +4 bp (+15 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.10 +4 bp (+17 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 160.27 +0.46 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1514 -$0.0013
Dollar Index: 100.16 +0.26
Gold: $4,517.10 +$140.80
Bitcoin: 65,954 -2519
Crude Oil: $100.36 +$5.88
DJIA: 45,167.44 -792.67
NASDAQ: 20,948.36 -459.72
S&P 500: 6368.86 -108.30
SOFR Data 03/27: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.65823, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.68416, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.87567, INDEX: 1.23722909
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
3,268.55 | 38.05 | 1.15% | 4.98 | 17.57% | 12:15 PM |
| WIG:IND
|
119,727.13 | 1,216.57 | 1.01% | 5.57 | 21.25% | 12:15 PM |
| WIG30:IND
|
4,127.40 | 41.70 | 1.00% | 6.21 | 16.53% | 12:15 PM |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1509 | 0.00 | 0.16% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
160.3100 | 0.50 | 0.31% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3259 | 0.01 | 0.53% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.6874 | 0.00 | 0.17% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3893 | 0.00 | 0.23% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.7990 | 0.00 | 0.47% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.2999 | 0.04 | 0.19% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.1772 | 0.04 | 0.16% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.7205 | 0.01 | 0.29% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
338.5300 | 1.96 | 0.58% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
81.4995 | 0.08 | 0.10% | 4:54 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
18.1188 | 0.18 | 1.01% | 4:59 PM |
POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE
| ELITE 21-30 YEAR | |||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | ||||
| 7.625 | -3.650 | -3.560 | -3.430 | ||||
| 7.500 | -3.348 | -3.258 | -3.128 | ||||
| 7.375 | -2.854 | -2.764 | -2.634 | ||||
| 7.250 | -2.337 | -2.247 | -2.117 | ||||
| 7.125 | -2.186 | -2.096 | -1.966 | ||||
| 6.999 | -1.896 | -1.806 | -1.676 | ||||
| 6.875 | -1.358 | -1.268 | -1.138 | ||||
| 6.750 | -0.752 | -0.662 | -0.532 | ||||
| 6.625 | -1.073 | -0.983 | -0.853 | ||||
| 6.500 | -0.724 | -0.634 | -0.504 | ||||
| 6.375 | -0.093 | -0.003 | 0.127 | ||||
| 6.250 | 0.575 | 0.665 | 0.795 | ||||
| 6.125 | 0.337 | 0.427 | 0.557 | ||||
| 5.999 | 0.780 | 0.870 | 1.000 | ||||
| 5.875 | 1.515 | 1.605 | 1.735 | ||||
| 5.750 | 2.336 | 2.426 | 2.556 | ||||
| 5.625 | 2.124 | 2.214 | 2.344 | ||||
| 5.500 | 2.700 | 2.790 | 2.920 | ||||
| 5.375 | 3.575 | 3.665 | 3.795 | ||||
| ELITE 11-15 YEAR | |||||||
| RATE | 15 DAY | 30 DAY | 45 DAY | ||||
| 7.000 | -3.388 | -3.298 | -3.168 | ||||
| 6.875 | -3.150 | -3.060 | -2.930 | ||||
| 6.750 | -2.670 | -2.580 | -2.450 | ||||
| 6.625 | -2.390 | -2.300 | -2.170 | ||||
| 6.500 | -2.190 | -2.100 | -1.970 | ||||
| 6.375 | -1.928 | -1.838 | -1.708 | ||||
| 6.250 | -1.433 | -1.343 | -1.213 | ||||
| 6.125 | -1.221 | -1.131 | -1.001 | ||||
| 6.000 | -0.979 | -0.889 | -0.759 | ||||
| 5.875 | -0.680 | -0.590 | -0.460 | ||||
| 5.750 | -0.163 | -0.073 | 0.057 | ||||
| 5.625 | 0.100 | 0.190 | 0.320 | ||||
| 5.500 | 0.388 | 0.478 | 0.608 | ||||
| 5.375 | 0.733 | 0.823 | 0.953 | ||||
| 5.250 | 1.282 | 1.372 | 1.502 | ||||
| 5.125 | 1.635 | 1.725 | 1.855 | ||||
| 5.000 | 1.980 | 2.070 | 2.200 | ||||
| 4.875 | 2.362 | 2.452 | 2.582 | ||||
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