Market Wrap-up

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 May Coupon is up +17 BPS at 3:05 pm ET

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: It was Big Jobs Friday! You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

April Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 115K versus estimates of 62K.

March NFP revised higher from 178K to 185K.

Feb NFP revised lower from -133K down to -156K.

The rolling three month average is now 48K which is quite low.

Wages:

The Average Hourly Rate rose by 6 cents to $37.41.

Average Hourly Earnings MOM up 0.2% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Average Hourly Earnings YOY up 3.6% versus estimates of 3.8% but up from March’s 3.4%.

Unemployment:

The Headline Unemployment Rate remained at 4.3% which was expected

U6 Underemployment Rate remained at -8%.

Laborforce Participation Rate moved from 61.9% to 61.8%.

Consumer Sentiment: We got the preliminary UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10 am, it dropped from 49.8 to 48.2 but 1 Year Inflation Expectations moved lower from 4.7% to 4.5%

SIGMA RESEARCH, INC. THE SHIRMEYER REPORT

The optimism that a deal to open the Strait for all shipping remains high, Secretary of State Rubio said today he expects a response to the US 14-point memorandum from Iran today. If I were trading the ‘prediction markets’ I would bet against it; even if Iran does respond it isn’t likely to satisfy President Trump who continues to say bombs will rain down again on Iran, I’ll bet against that too. Iran for 47 years has played the US like a fiddle, both Obama and Biden made attempts, but Iran stalled, the US tried to bribe Iran with $9B of cash, finally the US just went back in our hole and left Iran alone to build nuclear weapons.

Traders and news media are the best in coming up with acronyms; first it was TACO (Trump Always Chickens out), Now its NACHO “Never Avoids Confronting Hard Obstacles” or “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.”

Interest rates opened better this morning then sat the remainder of the day with little movement. Crude oil today unchanged from yesterday.

The April employment report this morning showed more jobs created than was expected, unemployment at 4.3% unchanged from March and still not increasing. The mid-month May University of Michigan consumer sentiment index this morning, the sentiment index expected at 49.3 but fell to 48.2, Likely high gas prices had a part to play. The positive was an increase in consumer expectations.

On Tuesday next week April CPI inflation, on Wednesday April PPI inflation; always key although it still is all about Iran and what Trump will do.

This week: 10 year note this week -2 bp, 2 7 note unchanged, FNMA 5.5 30 year coupon +18 bps. The DJIA this week +109, NASDAQ +1,103, S&P +169. Gold increased $103.00, crude oil fell $13.11. The dollar index -0.32, bitcoin increased 1732.

CENY @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.37% -2 bp

5 year note: 4.02% -3 bp

2 year note: 3.90% -1 bp

30 year bond: 4.95% -2 bp

30 year FNMA 5.5: 100.76 +24 bp (+4 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 102.23 +15 bp (unch from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 5.5: 100.90 +13 bp (+3 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 156.73 -0.21 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1783 +$0.0058

Dollar Index: 97.88 -0.18

Gold: $4,732.60 +$21.70

Bitcoin: 80,068 -50

Crude Oil: $95.31 +$0.50

DJIA: 49,609.1 +12.19

NASDAQ: 26,247.08 +440.88

S&P 500: 7398.88 +61.88

SOFR Data 05/08: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.64252, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.66511, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.75126, INDEX: 1.24249383

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	3,535.94	57.05	1.59%	0.06	27.75%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	130,226.13	2,082.87	1.57%	0.79	28.92%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	4,481.26	78.89	1.73%	0.19	25.26%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1787	0.01	0.52%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	156.6800	0.25	0.16%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3631	0.01	0.56%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.7246	0.00	0.51%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3677	0.00	0.09%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.7766	0.00	0.46%	4:59 PM

USD-MXN

17.1763

0.13

0.78%

4:59 PM

USD-CZK	20.6417	0.09	0.44%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	25.5598	0.13	0.52%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.5952	0.01	0.40%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	300.6500	4.04	1.33%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	74.2100	0.44	0.59%	3:07 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.625	-4.362	-4.272	-4.142	7.500	-4.132	-4.042	-3.912
7.500	-4.061	-3.971	-3.841	7.375	-3.690	-3.600	-3.470
7.375	-3.558	-3.468	-3.338	7.250	-3.162	-3.072	-2.942
7.250	-3.026	-2.936	-2.806	7.125	-2.891	-2.801	-2.671
7.125	-2.772	-2.682	-2.552	6.999	-2.571	-2.481	-2.351
6.999	-2.459	-2.369	-2.239	6.875	-2.080	-1.990	-1.860
6.875	-1.940	-1.850	-1.720	6.750	-1.521	-1.431	-1.301
6.750	-1.357	-1.267	-1.137	6.625	-1.786	-1.696	-1.566
6.625	-1.820	-1.730	-1.600	6.500	-1.447	-1.357	-1.227
6.500	-1.475	-1.385	-1.255	6.375	-0.930	-0.840	-0.710
6.375	-0.850	-0.760	-0.630	6.250	-0.357	-0.267	-0.137
6.250	-0.176	-0.086	0.044	6.125	-0.490	-0.400	-0.270
6.125	-0.412	-0.322	-0.192	5.999	-0.076	0.014	0.144
5.999	-0.015	0.075	0.205	5.875	0.472	0.562	0.692
5.875	0.736	0.826	0.956	5.750	1.079	1.169	1.299
5.750	1.534	1.624	1.754	5.625	1.316	1.406	1.536
5.625	1.448	1.538	1.668	5.500	1.813	1.903	2.033
5.500	1.977	2.067	2.197	5.375	2.417	2.507	2.637
5.375	2.802	2.892	3.022	5.250	3.058	3.148	3.278

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.000	-3.685	-3.595	-3.465	6.500	-2.654	-2.564	-2.434
6.875	-3.454	-3.364	-3.234	6.375	-2.449	-2.359	-2.229
6.750	-2.962	-2.872	-2.742	6.250	-1.954	-1.864	-1.734
6.625	-2.816	-2.726	-2.596	6.125	-1.836	-1.746	-1.616
6.500	-2.603	-2.513	-2.383	6.000	-1.660	-1.570	-1.440
6.375	-2.340	-2.250	-2.120	5.875	-1.422	-1.332	-1.202
6.250	-1.844	-1.754	-1.624	5.750	-0.906	-0.816	-0.686
6.125	-1.612	-1.522	-1.392	5.625	-0.833	-0.743	-0.613
6.000	-1.374	-1.284	-1.154	5.500	-0.610	-0.520	-0.390
5.875	-1.074	-0.984	-0.854	5.375	-0.338	-0.248	-0.118
5.750	-0.558	-0.468	-0.338	5.250	0.210	0.300	0.430
5.625	-0.390	-0.300	-0.170	5.125	0.696	0.786	0.916
5.500	-0.095	-0.005	0.125	5.000	0.981	1.071	1.201
5.375	0.250	0.340	0.470	4.875	1.271	1.361	1.491
5.250	0.797	0.887	1.017	4.750	1.839	1.929	2.059
5.125	1.225	1.315	1.445	4.625	1.943	2.033	2.163
5.000	1.592	1.682	1.812	4.500	2.265	2.355	2.485
4.875	1.965	2.055	2.185	4.375	2.587	2.677	2.807

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period
Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL	0.74%	1.92%	6.50%	22.66%	47.93%	Tracking Tool

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

30 Yr. Fixed

6.42% -0.02%

5.99%

7.08%

15 Yr. Fixed

5.99% -0.01%

5.55%

6.39%

30 Yr. Jumbo

6.59% +0.00%

6.1%

7.15%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for May 8, 2026

Mortgage Rates End Week Slightly Lower

Fri, May 8, 2026 1:52PM

It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher. Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery with MND’s daily rate index dropping 0.10%. Tuesday and Friday (today) each added a 0.02% drop, taking the index to 6.42% after ending last week at 6.44%. War-related headlines were less of a factor today and volatility was unsurprisingly lighter as a result. This is an adjustment for seasone… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.42%	-0.02	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.99%	-0.01	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	5.93%	-0.02	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.59%	0.00	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.27%	+0.06	0.00
30 Yr. VA	5.95%	-0.01	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 5/8

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.37%	+0.07	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.72%	+0.08	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 5/7

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.45%	+0.08	0.66
15 Yr. Fixed	5.83%	+0.06	0.73
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.47%	+0.02	0.47
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 5/6

UMBS 30YR 5.0

98.77 +0.12

95.71

100.50

UMBS 30YR 5.5

100.78 +0.16

98.11

101.64

10 YR Treasury

4.366 -0.025

3.948

4.590

Forget What You Know About The Payroll Count

Fri, May 8, 2026 9:00AM

Everyone’s been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bond traders for sure. The issue is the rapid shift in the size of the labor force as well as recent volatility in the multiple jobholder category, among other things. Specifically, the labor force has been shrin… (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 4.5	96.58	+0.17
UMBS 5.0	98.77	+0.12
UMBS 5.5	100.78	+0.16
GNMA 4.5	96.65	+0.10
GNMA 5.0	99.40	+0.08
GNMA 5.5	100.81	0.00
Pricing as of: 5/8 2:16PM EST