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Market Wrap-up (08.07.2026)

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 August Coupon is up +25 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: It was Small Jobs Friday and this round of economic data was much weaker than expected. You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

July Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) -23K versus estimates of 80K.

June NFP revised lower from 57K down to 27K.

May NFP revised lower from 129K down to 63K.

The rolling three month average dropped to 22K.

Wages:

The Average Hourly Rate moved up just 2 cents to $37.62.

MOM Average Hourly Earnings 0.1% versus estimates of 0.3%.

YOY Average Hourly Earnings 3.2% versus estimates of 3.5%.

Unemployment:

The headline Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.1% versus estimates of 4.2%.

U6 Underemployment remained at 7.9%.

The Labor Force Participation Rate dropped from 61.5% down to 61.4%.

July employment data this morning was much weaker than estimates, setting up a little view that the Fed may not increase rates. The ebb and flow over whether the Fed will raise rates has been constant since the FOMC and Warsh’s press conference. In the meantime, interest rates swing from Iran news and economic data.

The Iran war news was nil, Trump appears willing to hold off his threats, but this is the weekend, most news this week was Iran/Oman carving up the Strait and keeping the US and Israel out of it.

Interest rates had a good week, the 10 year yield fell 8 bps, however that doesn’t paint the right picture. Last Friday the 10 jumped six bps on concerns the US was about to launch a massive Iran attack which of course never occurred, and rates fell back on Monday.

Employment has softened, job losses in July, downward revisions for June and May. Next week markets face inflation data with July CPI and PPI, Fed officials more concerned about inflation than employment.

Next Week’s Calendar: Nothing Monday. Tuesday July existing home sales, July NFIB small business optimism index, 3 year note auction Wednesday July CPI, July Treasury budget, MBA mortgage applications,10 year note auction. Thursday weekly jobless claims, July PPI, 30 year bond auction. Friday July retail sales, U. of Michigan mid-month consumer sentiment index.

This Week: 10 year note yield -9 bp, the 2 year note -8 bps, FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon +47 bps. The DJIA +1,752, NASDAQ +1,317, S&P +268. Gold +$218.00, crude oil -$7.93. The dollar index fell 1.58, bitcoin +1,038.

10 year note at 4:00 pm

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.65% -3 bp

5 year note: 4.36% -4 bp

2 year note: 4.21% -5 bp

30 year bond: 5.20% -3 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.54 +16 bp (-1 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.49 +21 bp (-8 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.88 +15 bp (+1 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 157.50 -0.96 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1565 +$0.0040

Dollar Index: 99.50 -0.43

Gold: $4,405.50 +$105.90

Bitcoin: 64,936 +539

Crude Oil: $76.86 -$0.43

DJIA: 54,037 +151

NASDAQ: 26,691 +342

S&P 500: 7758 +48

SOFR Data 08/07: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.62347, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.62810, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.66300, INDEX: 1.25388891

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	4,000.25	21.91	0.54%	6.12	32.36%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	151,782.90	369.70	0.24%	6.74	36.84%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	5,117.39	15.22	0.30%	7.21	31.74%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1559	0.00	0.30%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	157.7600	0.67	0.42%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3491	0.00	0.27%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.7067	0.00	0.50%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.3939	0.01	0.53%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8079	0.00	0.54%	4:59 PM

USD-CZK	20.9815	0.06	0.26%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	26.0630	0.08	0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.7183	0.02	0.42%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	314.1600	2.78	0.88%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	82.3400	0.30	0.36%	3:01 PM

USD-MXN

17.1355

0.07

0.43%

4:59 P

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

30 Yr. Fixed

6.74% -0.03%

5.99%

6.85%

15 Yr. Fixed

6.25% -0.05%

5.55%

6.34%

30 Yr. Jumbo

6.85% -0.05%

6.1%

6.92%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 7, 2026

Mortgage Rates End Week at Lows

Fri, Aug 7, 2026 4:58PM

Mortgage rates dropped moderately today after the latest jobs report showed much lower jobs created than expected. The monthly jobs report is one of the most–if not THE most–important pieces of economic data to the rate market on any given month. If the numbers are close to forecasts, there isn’t always a big reaction. Today’s numbers were quite far from forecasts for some parts of the report, but slightly offset by others. The net effect was a decent improvement in the underlying bond market. Because mortgage rates are based on bonds, rates dropped accordingly. The average top-tier 30yr … (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.74%	-0.03	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.25%	-0.05	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.28%	-0.05	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.85%	-0.05	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.29%	-0.05	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.30%	-0.05	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 8/7

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.69%	+0.03	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.01%	-0.03	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/6

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.81%	+0.05	0.65
15 Yr. Fixed	6.13%	-0.02	0.73
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.72%	+0.02	0.52
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/5

UMBS 30YR 5.5

99.52 +0.28

98.89

101.64

UMBS 30YR 6.0

101.53 +0.19

101.05

102.75

10 YR Treasury

4.644 -0.033

3.948

4.736

Much Stronger Start After Negative NFP Print, But…

Fri, Aug 7, 2026 9:05AM

Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast. Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is pure rally fuel. Indeed, bonds are rallying sharply so far. Let’s hope it sticks. Why wouldn’t it? As labor force dynamics have shifted, it doesn’t take much job growth (or perhaps any?) to keep the unempl… (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 5.0	97.15	+0.33
UMBS 5.5	99.52	+0.28
UMBS 6.0	101.53	+0.19
GNMA 5.0	97.47	+0.27
GNMA 5.5	99.75	+0.12
GNMA 6.0	101.73	+0.04
Pricing as of: 8/7 5:21PM EST

US Treasury	Yield	Change
2 YR Treasury	4.197	-0.052
5 YR Treasury	4.353	-0.043
7 YR Treasury	4.492	-0.042
10 YR Treasury	4.644	-0.033
30 YR Treasury	5.196	-0.031
Pricing as of: 8/7 5:21PM EST

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL

Metro Area	Last quarter	2 qtrs ago	1 year ago	3 yrs ago	5 yrs ago	Custom Period	See Mortgage Rates
Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL	1.12%	1.88%	5.62%	22.62%	47.76%	Tracking Tool	(847) 636-5500

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.625	-3.966	-3.876	-3.746	7.625	-3.812	-3.722	-3.592
7.500	-3.585	-3.495	-3.365	7.500	-3.447	-3.357	-3.227
7.375	-3.043	-2.953	-2.823	7.375	-2.966	-2.876	-2.746
7.250	-2.466	-2.376	-2.246	7.250	-2.386	-2.296	-2.166
7.125	-2.319	-2.229	-2.099	7.125	-2.173	-2.083	-1.953
6.999	-1.932	-1.842	-1.712	6.999	-1.712	-1.622	-1.492
6.875	-1.361	-1.271	-1.141	6.875	-1.230	-1.140	-1.010
6.750	-0.707	-0.617	-0.487	6.750	-0.650	-0.560	-0.430
6.625	-0.871	-0.781	-0.651	6.625	-0.759	-0.669	-0.539
6.500	-0.437	-0.347	-0.217	6.500	-0.432	-0.342	-0.212
6.375	0.235	0.325	0.455	6.375	0.156	0.246	0.376
6.250	0.986	1.076	1.206	6.250	0.777	0.867	0.997
6.125	0.983	1.073	1.203	6.125	0.866	0.956	1.086
5.999	1.546	1.636	1.766	5.999	1.330	1.420	1.550
5.875	2.345	2.435	2.565	5.875	1.924	2.014	2.144
5.750	3.186	3.276	3.406	5.750	2.581	2.671	2.801
5.625	3.236	3.326	3.456	5.625	3.231	3.321	3.451
5.500	3.897	3.987	4.117	5.500	3.654	3.744	3.874
5.375	4.811	4.901	5.031	5.375	4.379	4.469	4.599

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.125	-3.405	-3.315	-3.185	7.000	-3.052	-2.962	-2.832
7.000	-3.009	-2.919	-2.789	6.875	-2.716	-2.626	-2.496
6.875	-2.691	-2.601	-2.471	6.750	-2.412	-2.322	-2.192
6.750	-2.192	-2.102	-1.972	6.625	-2.104	-2.014	-1.884
6.625	-2.185	-2.095	-1.965	6.500	-1.928	-1.838	-1.708
6.500	-1.950	-1.860	-1.730	6.375	-1.695	-1.605	-1.475
6.375	-1.657	-1.567	-1.437	6.250	-1.173	-1.083	-0.953
6.250	-1.135	-1.045	-0.915	6.125	-1.169	-1.079	-0.949
6.125	-0.959	-0.869	-0.739	6.000	-0.936	-0.846	-0.716
6.000	-0.656	-0.566	-0.436	5.875	-0.674	-0.584	-0.454
5.875	-0.324	-0.234	-0.104	5.750	-0.121	-0.031	0.099
5.750	0.229	0.319	0.449	5.625	0.217	0.307	0.437
5.625	0.660	0.750	0.880	5.500	0.457	0.547	0.677
5.500	0.976	1.066	1.196	5.375	0.757	0.847	0.977
5.375	1.357	1.447	1.577	5.250	1.328	1.418	1.548
5.250	1.928	2.018	2.148	5.125	1.920	2.010	2.140
5.125	2.448	2.538	2.668	5.000	2.261	2.351	2.481
5.000	2.798	2.888	3.018	4.875	2.574	2.664	2.794
4.875	3.199	3.289	3.419	4.750	3.172	3.262	3.392