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Market Wrap-up( 08.14.2026)

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 5.500 September Coupon is down -23 BPS at 3:00 PM ET.

Retail Snails: The headline July Retail Sales fell -0.6% versus estimates of +0.1%. Ex Autos, they were down -0.3% versus estimates of 0.2% and the Control Group fell from 0.4% down to -0.4%.

Glass Half Empty: The preliminary August UofM Consumer Sentiment Index dropped from 55.2 down to 51.0, 1 year inflation expectations moved up from 4.2% to 4.3%.

Interest rates edged higher today, taking the 10 year note to its highest level in three weeks. CPI and PPI inflation were slightly better than thought, and last Friday’s July employment saw job losses. The data ignited a thought that the Fed may not increase rates, as we have noted over the past month the likelihood of much lower interest rates is difficult for us to square, why we have consistently kept locked. The next FOMC meeting is Sept 16th, the Jackson Hole Economic Forum is August 27th; between now and then (Jackson Hole) interest rates are likely to stay high and within the 10 bp range the 10 has been in for three weeks.

Here is the complete rundown of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data this morning, it’s the mid-month data and shows consumers less optimistic over the last couple of weeks.

Next week’s Calendar: Not much on the calendar. Monday August Empire State manufacturing index, August NAHB housing market index, Tuesday July housing starts and permits, July import and export prices, July industrial production and capacity utilization, July pending home sales. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications. Thursday weekly jobless claims. Friday August S&P global manufacturing index and services index.

The new plan for Iran is to use its dwindling economy to force an acceptable deal. According to those who know their economy is already in depression, continuing the squeeze has the potential of bringing down the current regime.

This week: 10 year note +5 bps; the 2 year note -3 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -8 bps. The DJIA this week -304, NASDAQ +38, S&P +28. The dollar index +0.15. Gold +$17.00, bitcoin -2,077.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.70% +5 bp

5 year note: 4.37% +5 bp

2 year note: 4.18% +2 bp

30 year bond: 5.26% +4 bp

30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.46 -12 bp (-15 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.36 -24 bp (-26 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.78 -20 bp (-22 bp from 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yen: 159.39 -0.11 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1568 +$0.0040

Dollar Index: 99.65 -0.31

Gold: $4,433.40 +$13.00

Bitcoin: 62,859 -476

Crude Oil: $82.28 +$1.03

DJIA: 53,733 -107

NASDAQ: 26,729 -74

S&P 500: 7786 -13

SOFR Data 08/14: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.63617, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.63113, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.66204, INDEX: 1.25477279

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	4,032.00	25.51	0.64%	5.58	36.69%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	153,236.60	853.20	0.56%	6.58	40.11%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	5,163.36	34.56	0.67%	6.69	36.20%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1569	0.00	0.36%	4:54 PM
USD-JPY	159.3300	0.17	0.11%	4:54 PM
GBP-USD	1.3534	0.00	0.35%	4:54 PM
AUD-USD	0.7084	0.00	0.35%	4:54 PM
USD-CAD	1.3872	0.01	0.42%	4:54 PM
USD-CHF	0.8134	0.00	0.09%	4:55 P

USD-CZK	20.9334	0.08	0.38%	4:54 PM
USD-SKK	26.0396	0.09	0.36%	4:54 PM
USD-PLN	3.7226	0.02	0.44%	4:54 PM
USD-HUF	313.8500	1.30	0.41%	4:54 PM
USD-RUB	84.0565	0.61	0.73%	3:44 PM

USD-MXN

17.0243

0.01

0.04%

4:53 PM

POŻYCZKI HIPOTECZNE

ELITE 21-30 YEAR				ELITE 16-20 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.625	-4.147	-4.057	-3.927	7.625	-3.997	-3.907	-3.777
7.500	-3.766	-3.676	-3.546	7.500	-3.633	-3.543	-3.413
7.375	-3.238	-3.148	-3.018	7.375	-3.157	-3.067	-2.937
7.250	-2.660	-2.570	-2.440	7.250	-2.589	-2.499	-2.369
7.125	-2.446	-2.356	-2.226	7.125	-2.409	-2.319	-2.189
6.999	-2.063	-1.973	-1.843	6.999	-1.945	-1.855	-1.725
6.875	-1.494	-1.404	-1.274	6.875	-1.489	-1.399	-1.269
6.750	-0.861	-0.771	-0.641	6.750	-0.899	-0.809	-0.679
6.625	-0.879	-0.789	-0.659	6.625	-0.878	-0.788	-0.658
6.500	-0.445	-0.355	-0.225	6.500	-0.541	-0.451	-0.321
6.375	0.221	0.311	0.441	6.375	0.048	0.138	0.268
6.250	0.941	1.031	1.161	6.250	0.645	0.735	0.865
6.125	1.024	1.114	1.244	6.125	0.854	0.944	1.074
5.999	1.594	1.684	1.814	5.999	1.309	1.399	1.529
5.875	2.385	2.475	2.605	5.875	1.889	1.979	2.109
5.750	3.213	3.303	3.433	5.750	2.543	2.633	2.763
5.625	3.396	3.486	3.616	5.625	3.287	3.377	3.507
5.500	4.030	4.120	4.250	5.500	3.798	3.888	4.018
5.375	4.920	5.010	5.140	5.375	4.499	4.589	4.719

ELITE 11-15 YEAR				ELITE 8-10 YEAR
RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY	RATE	15 DAY	30 DAY	45 DAY
7.125	-3.032	-2.942	-2.812	7.000	-2.729	-2.639	-2.509
7.000	-2.753	-2.663	-2.533	6.875	-2.668	-2.578	-2.448
6.875	-2.643	-2.553	-2.423	6.750	-2.122	-2.032	-1.902
6.750	-2.017	-1.927	-1.797	6.625	-2.112	-2.022	-1.892
6.625	-2.192	-2.102	-1.972	6.500	-1.926	-1.836	-1.706
6.500	-1.947	-1.857	-1.727	6.375	-1.682	-1.592	-1.462
6.375	-1.645	-1.555	-1.425	6.250	-1.170	-1.080	-0.950
6.250	-1.132	-1.042	-0.912	6.125	-1.233	-1.143	-1.013
6.125	-1.023	-0.933	-0.803	6.000	-1.000	-0.910	-0.780
6.000	-0.721	-0.631	-0.501	5.875	-0.743	-0.653	-0.523
5.875	-0.393	-0.303	-0.173	5.750	-0.197	-0.107	0.023
5.750	0.153	0.243	0.373	5.625	0.169	0.259	0.389
5.625	0.613	0.703	0.833	5.500	0.411	0.501	0.631
5.500	0.931	1.021	1.151	5.375	0.708	0.798	0.928
5.375	1.308	1.398	1.528	5.250	1.278	1.368	1.498
5.250	1.878	1.968	2.098	5.125	1.859	1.949	2.079
5.125	2.427	2.517	2.647	5.000	2.244	2.334	2.464
5.000	2.782	2.872	3.002	4.875	2.552	2.642	2.772
4.875	3.177	3.267	3.397	4.750	3.145	3.235	3.365

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

30 Yr. Fixed

6.71% +0.02%

5.99%

6.85%

15 Yr. Fixed

6.29% +0.03%

5.55%

6.34%

30 Yr. Jumbo

6.85% +0.02%

6.1%

6.92%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 14, 2026

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher to End The Week

Fri, Aug 14, 2026 2:56PM

First, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compared to Thursday, but the change was so small that many borrowers will see little–if any–difference in pricing. Now the good news: apart from yesterday afternoon, today’s rates would still be the lowest in 4 weeks (i.e. you’d have to go back to July 17th to see anything lower). Lastly, some news that’s neither good nor bad, but simply a bit confusing. Today’s higher rates followed this morning’s Retail Sales report which came in much weaker than expected. Conventional wisdom would have suggested that weaker data coinc… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.71%	+0.02	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	6.29%	+0.03	0.00
30 Yr. FHA	6.29%	+0.01	0.00
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.85%	+0.02	0.00
7/6 SOFR ARM	6.29%	0.00	0.00
30 Yr. VA	6.31%	+0.02	0.00
Updates Daily – Last Update: 8/14

Freddie Mac	Rate	Change	Points
30 Yr. Fixed	6.67%	-0.02	0.00
15 Yr. Fixed	5.96%	-0.05	0.00
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/13

Mortgage Bankers Assoc.
30 Yr. Fixed	6.77%	-0.04	0.67
15 Yr. Fixed	6.10%	-0.03	0.94
30 Yr. Jumbo	6.68%	-0.04	0.51
Updates Weekly – Last Update: 8/12

UMBS 30YR 5.5

99.37 -0.24

98.89

101.64

UMBS 30YR 6.0

101.45 -0.15

101.05

102.75

10 YR Treasury

4.696 +0.053

3.948

4.736

Good Luck Making Sense of Retail Sales Reaction

Fri, Aug 14, 2026 10:01AM

Based on a few research papers that have attempted to quantify the impact of various economic reports as well as the general consensus among economic calendar purveyors, Retail Sales is allegedly a top tier market mover. In fact, a somewhat recent attempt by CME to rank econ data has in 5th place ahead of CPI, PPI, and PCE. But in our experience, it is … (read more)

MBS	Price	Change
UMBS 5.0	96.94	-0.34
UMBS 5.5	99.37	-0.24
UMBS 6.0	101.45	-0.15
GNMA 5.0	97.31	-0.37
GNMA 5.5	99.83	-0.17
GNMA 6.0	101.74	-0.26
Pricing as of: 8/14 3:21PM EST