MARKET WRAP-UP
August Chicap-upago PMI was a big disappointment by moving back into contractionary territory, falling from 57.6 down to 47.1.
The final/revised August UofM Consumer Sentiment Index was revised from 51.2 to 51.7, no one cared.
FED MEETING: Today ends the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole WY Economic Symposium and the markets focused on Fed Chair Warsh’s. Here are a few key takeaways:
- His main point came at the end of his speech when he said that the FOMC is “committed to a discipline, not to a decision”
- He spoke about AI, being inflationary in the near term and then deflationary longer term
- He restated his opposition to regular forward guidance, calling it a crisis-era tool that has “overstayed its welcome.”
- He warned of a “hall-of-mirrors” problem in which the Fed and markets feed off each other and miss turning points.
- He rejected publishing an explicit reaction function or mechanical rule, arguing the economy is too uncertain and that 2021-style guidance delayed the response to inflation.
- Markets should form their own views from real data; the Fed should not be the primary source of the next trade
Kevin Warsh spoke this morning, the overall takeaway after a few minutes digesting his remarks is the Fed may increase rates at the Sept FOMC meeting. He was careful though in his comments and said the Fed would be less transparent with its forward guidance, leaving markets to play a more important role in determining Fed policy.
The reaction increased interest rates, the 10 back to its month-long high and the 2 year note at a three-month high. Mortgage prices fell 31 bps. On the week the 10 year is unchanged from last Friday, MBS price down 7 bps; the 2 year note increased 12 bps. Pressure on the 2 is due to comments from Sec of Treasury Bessent saying earlier this week that funding the budget deficit would be mostly from the short end of the curve.
10 year from July 12th
Next week is employment week. Tuesday August ISM manufacturing index, July construction spending, July JOLTS job openings. Wednesday Aug ADP private jobs, weekly MBA mortgage apps. September Fed Beige Book. Thursday weekly jobless claims, July US trade balance, Q2 productivity and unit labor costs, August service sector index. Friday August BLS employment data.
This week: The 10 year -1 bp, 2 year note +12 bps; FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -10 bps. DJIA +231, NASDAQ +222, S&P +37. The dollar index increased 0.73, sending gold down$162.00, crude oil -$3.42. Bitcoin +428.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.73% +6 bp
5 year note: 4.49% +9 bp
2 year note: 4.36% +12 bp
30 year bond: 5.22% +2 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.13 -30 bp (-28 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 99.06 -39 bp (-36 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.38 -24 bp (-15 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 160.09 +0.69 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1588 -$0.0063
Dollar Index: 99.66 +0.50
Gold: $4,512 -$151.00
Bitcoin: 77,628 -2302
Crude Oil: $83.38 -$0.15
DJIA: 53,559 -10
NASDAQ: 26,402 -139
S&P 500: 7711 -20
SOFR Data 08/28: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.64553, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.64347, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.65933, INDEX: 1.25655008
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
3,993.70 | 34.07 | 0.86% | 4.41 | 41.20% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
151,918.30 | 963.90 | 0.64% | 5.40 | 43.28% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
5,108.12 | 34.60 | 0.68% | 4.93 | 39.11% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1585 | 0.01 | 0.58% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
160.0900 | 0.70 | 0.44% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3538 | 0.01 | 0.40% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.7164 | 0.00 | 0.42% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3905 | 0.01 | 0.36% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8091 | 0.00 | 0.61% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
17.0360 | 0.06 | 0.35% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
20.8415 | 0.12 | 0.60% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.0033 | 0.15 | 0.58% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.7502 | 0.03 | 0.82% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
315.2400 | 2.06 | 0.66% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
85.8447 | 0.10 | 0.12% | 4:52 PM |
Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL
| Metro Area | Last quarter | 2 qtrs ago | 1 year ago | 3 yrs ago | 5 yrs ago | Custom Period | See Mortgage Rates |
| Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL | 1.12% | 1.88% | 5.62% | 22.62% | 47.76% | Tracking Tool | Shop refinance rates for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL |
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