“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”
“NOT TAKING A RISK IS A RISK. THAT’S HOW I SEE IT” (Robert Retford)
“Panic isn’t an investing strategy. And of course, neither is bravado”
Market Wrap-up
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: It was Big Jobs Friday (and it actually was for a change). You can read the official BLS release here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
August Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) 162K versus estimates of 56K.
July NFP revised higher from -23K to 21K.
June NFP revised higher from 20K to 31K.
This has pushed the rolling three month average to 72K.
Wages:
The Average Hourly Earnings rate moved up 10 cents to $37.75.
Average Hourly Earnings MOM up 0.3%, plus July revised higher.
Average Hourly Earnings YOY up 3.1% versus estimates of 3.0%.
Unemployment:
The headline Unemployment Rate remained at 4.1% which was expected.
U6 Underemployment dropped from 7.9% to 7.7%.
Laborforce Participation moved higher from 61.4% to 61.6%.
On Deck For Tomorrow: The Bond Market is CLOSED on Monday.
The employment sector is boiling, BLS August jobs far exceeded estimates and July jobs were revised higher than originally reported. Yesterday two Fed officials commented they want the FF rate (fed funds) to stay where they are igniting traders to think no rate increases at the September FOMC meeting. After today’s job report the idea of an increase is back on the table.
Interest rates at the long end of the curve were unchanged yesterday and barely moved today; at the short end of the curve the 2 year note declined 3 bps yesterday and today +3 bps.
There is a fast-growing thought that the world is moving to higher rate environment driven by global debt both from governments and corporate debt. It tracks with what we have been commenting for months that 30 year mortgage rates are unlikely to decline to more than 6.5% and that would be optimal.
This week interest rates across the curve were little changed from week before.
Next week’s calendar has inflation data, the week before the FOMC meeting on the 16th; also, it’s a four day week. No markets on Monday. Tuesday July consumer credit, 3 year note auction. Wednesday 10 year note auction. Thursday August PPI (producer price index, 10 year note auction, weekly jobless claims, August existing home sales, 30 year bond auction. Friday August CPI (consumer price index), mid-month U. of Michigan consumer sentiment index, AND the August Treasury budget, (a month ago the July Treasury deficit increased to for the month $420B, $100B more than expected and ignited the current concerns over exploding government debt).
This week: 10 year note +5 bps, the 2 year note +2 bp, FNMA 6.0 30 year coupon -11 bps. The DJIA -145, NASDAQ +105, S&P +7. Gold -$28.00, crude oil +$8.00. The dollar index -3.86, bitcoin +2030.
10 year note at 4:00 pm
KEEP LOCKED, NO MARKETS ON MONDAY.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 4.78% unch
5 year note: 4.55% +3 bp
2 year note: 4.38% +3 bp
30 year bond: 5.25% unch
30 year FNMA 6.0: 101.02 -11 bp (unchanged from 9:30 am)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 98.89 -4 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 101.20 -5 bp (+1 bp from 9:30 am)
Dollar/Yen: 156.23 +0.43 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1616 -$0.0008
Dollar Index: 99.14 +0.23
Gold: $4,484 -$57.16
Bitcoin: 79,658 -2101
Crude Oil: $91.39 +$0.09
DJIA: 53,414 -273
NASDAQ: 26,507 -77
S&P 500: 7718 -29
SOFR Data 09/04: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.64586, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.64571, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.65865, INDEX: 1.25744386
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
4,090.27 | 54.74 | 1.36% | 2.35 | 44.62% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
153,948.20 | 1,878.30 | 1.24% | 1.63 | 45.24% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
5,189.91 | 65.91 | 1.29% | 1.56 | 41.40% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1614 | 0.00 | 0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
156.2600 | 0.45 | 0.29% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3519 | 0.00 | 0.04% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.7203 | 0.00 | 0.03% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3837 | 0.00 | 0.31% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8099 | 0.00 | 0.30% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
16.8864 | 0.03 | 0.21% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
20.8351 | 0.04 | 0.21% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
25.9395 | 0.03 | 0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.7125 | 0.00 | 0.12% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
311.8500 | 0.60 | 0.19% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
86.2148 | 0.45 | 0.52% | 4:46 PM |
OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE
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