“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”
“NOT TAKING A RISK IS A RISK. THAT’S HOW I SEE IT” (Robert Retford)
“Panic isn’t an investing strategy. And of course, neither is bravado”
Market Wrap-up
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 October Coupon is down -35 BPS at 2:56 PM ET
Rosie the Riveter: August Industrial Production was light at 0.0% versus estimates of 0.3%. Capacity Utilization was also light with 76.3% versus estimates of 76.4%.
Leading Down: The August Leading Economic Indicators fell from 0.2% down to -0.1%.
The Talking Fed: Kansas City Fed President Schmid pointed out that inflation is just about energy. Schmid said inflation excluding energy has “also been running hot,” adding that a “broad range of goods and services” have also seen price growth inconsistent with the Fed’s price stability mandate.
Central Bank Palooza: The Bank of Japan increased their interest rate by 25BPS.
For all the angst this week with the Fed increasing rates there was little change in MBSs and the 10 year note, the biggest movement this week was the 2 year note reacting to the Fed increase.
The hard pill to swallow is the realization 30 year mortgage rates are not likely to decline much from current levels. It is difficult to erase our brains from the low rates over the past five years. Buyers and sellers of homes as well as mortgage originators must come with grips mortgage rates are not going to decline a lot. Think about this, in 1982 30 year mortgage rates were at 17%, I sold my house at that rate.
Next week’s calendar is thin on key economic data. Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday Treasury will auction 2s,5s and 7s, key levels after the Fed moved. There aren’t any economic releases until Wednesday; weekly MBA mortgage applications, prelim Sept PMI manufacturing and services indexes. Thursday weekly jobless claims (last week claims were the lowest in 60 years), August new home sales. Friday August durable goods orders, final Sept University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
This Week: 10 year note +2 bps, the 2 year note +14 bps. FNMA 6.0 and 5.5 coupons both -20 bps. The DJIA -881, NASDAQ +190, S&P -7. Gold +$30.00, the dollar index +3.04, bitcoin +3,947.
The 10 year note at very key level at 5.00% a close above it will set off another increase in mortgage rates, last time above 5.00%, 2007.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 year note: 5.00% +7 bp
5 year note: 4.87% +7 bp
2 year note: 4.77% +8 bp
30 year bond: 5.33% +4 bp
30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.62 -33 bp (-7 bp from 9:30)
30 year FNMA 5.5: 97.12 -47 bp (-7 bp from 9:30)
30 year GNMA 6.0: 99.72 -29 bp (-8 bp from 9:30)
Dollar/Yen: 156.75 +0.78 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1488 +$0.0013
Dollar Index: 100.20 -0.05
Gold: $4,419.00 +$19.30
Bitcoin: 81,223 +4686
Crude Oil: $99.86 -$2.03
DJIA: 51,682 -96
NASDAQ: 26,523 +104
S&P 500: 7650+13
SOFR Data 09/18: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.65452, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.64874, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.65909, INDEX: 1.25922944
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
4,122.52 | 20.76 | 0.50% | 4.17 | 46.74% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
154,993.00 | 967.00 | 0.62% | 2.92 | 46.82% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
5,214.09 | 30.83 | 0.59% | 3.07 | 42.67% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1486 | 0.00 | 0.09% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
156.8800 | 0.91 | 0.58% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3395 | 0.00 | 0.27% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.7121 | 0.00 | 0.14% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.3987 | 0.00 | 0.03% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8224 | 0.00 | 0.27% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
17.2301 | 0.06 | 0.37% | 4:59 PM |
|
USD-CZK
|
21.1765 |
|
|
4:59 PM |
|
USD-SKK
|
26.2293 |
|
|
4:59 PM |
|
USD-PLN
|
3.7990 |
|
|
4:59 PM |
|
USD-HUF
|
317.1900 |
|
|
4:59 PM |
|
USD-RUB
|
84.4647 |
|
|
4:57 PM |
OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE
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