Market Wrap-up
“NOT TAKING A RISK IS A RISK. THAT’S HOW I SEE IT” (Robert Retford)
“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits”
“Panic isn’t an investing strategy. And of course, neither is bravado”
Friday, September 25, 2026 4:00 PM
Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.00 October Coupon is up +43 BPS at 2:52 PM ET.
: August headline Durable Goods Orders were higher than expected, 0.0% versus estimates of -0.4%. Ex Transportation they were lower than expected, 0.3% estimates of 0.6% but the NonDefense Capital Goods Ex Aircraft shot up from 0.6% to 1.6%.
: The revised Sep Consumer Sentiment moved from 47.8 to 48.1 with 12 month inflation expectations remaining at 4.6%.
: Cleveland Fed President Hammack said she didn’t see current Fed policy as restraining the economy (aka no downward pressure on inflation) outside of the housing market (where it is destructive to the housing market).
: WTI is down (favorable for pricing) $2.44.
Interest rates improved this afternoon after the major declines this week. Iran saying it will open the Strait in 7 days if the US agrees to open discussions, yesterday the Pres. of Iran said nuclear discussions are on the table. Trump pressed Xi to help with Iran. Last night in a long interview on Fox with Brett Baier the Pres. of Iran Masoud Pezeshkian in response to questions made it clear the Iran military, the IRGC, runs the show, not politicians. Politicians in Iran signed the MOU deal in March with the US, three day later military attacks on ships in the Strait blew up the deal. So, not a good idea to trust the politicians.
Next week another week with major economic data. Its employment week. August PCE inflation, JOLTS job openings, personal income and spending for August, weekly jobless claims (last week the lowest in 60 years).
Better rates today after excessive selling all week; not a turn in overall direction, just traders squaring positions for the weekend, way too much bearish at this minute. Interest rates are going to remain higher than was thought two weeks ago. The US is borrowing more to fund its more than $40 trillion in national debt, as well as to plug an annual fiscal shortfall that the Congressional Budget Office estimated in August will reach $2.1 trillion, US fiscal ends at the end of this month.
This Week: 10 yr note rate +16 bps, 2 yr +8 bps. FNMA 6.0 -77 bps. The DJIA +147, NASDAQ +546, S&P +93. Gold +$9300, crude oil -$7.36. Dollar index +0.46, bitcoin +2,742.
PRICES @ 4:00 PM
10 yr note: 5.16% -4 bp
5 yr note: 4.98% -8 bp
2 Yr note: 4.85% -8 bp
30 yr bond: 5.48% unch
30 yr FNMA 6.0: 98.85 +55 bp (+40 bp frm 9:30); 6.5 101.24 bp +50 bps
30 yr FNMA 5.5: 96.32 +59 bp (+32 bp frm 9:30): 6.5 101.17 +52 bps
30 yr GNMA 6.0: 99.02 +61 bp (+18 bp frm 9:30): 6.5 101.17 +52 bps
Dollar/Yen: 157.21 -1.64 yen
Dollar/Euro: $1.1399 +$0.0016
Dollar Index: 100.98 -0.31
Gold: $4,326 +$28.00
Bitcoin: 83,965 -416
Crude Oil: $92.50 -$2.11
DJIA: 51,829 +479
NASDAQ: 27,069 +129
S&P 500: 7743 +39
Poland
| Name, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | % Change, not sorted | 1 Month, not sorted | 1 Year, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| WIG20:IND
|
4,180.26 | 12.64 | 0.30% | 4.30 | 49.41% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG:IND
|
157,173.60 | 381.80 | 0.24% | 3.16 | 48.89% | 11:15 AM |
| WIG30:IND
|
5,281.18 | 16.82 | 0.32% | 3.10 | 45.55% | 11:15 AM |
WALUTY
| Currency, not sorted | Value, not sorted | Change, not sorted | Net Change, not sorted | Time (EDT), not sorted |
| EUR-USD
|
1.1391 | 0.00 | 0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-JPY
|
157.2800 | 1.58 | 0.99% | 4:59 PM |
| GBP-USD
|
1.3247 | 0.00 | 0.21% | 4:59 PM |
| AUD-USD
|
0.7023 | 0.00 | 0.16% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CAD
|
1.4142 | 0.00 | 0.03% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CHF
|
0.8283 | 0.00 | 0.06% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-MXN
|
17.6824 | 0.04 | 0.24% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-CZK
|
21.3894 | 0.06 | 0.26% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-SKK
|
26.4467 | 0.03 | 0.10% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-PLN
|
3.8380 | 0.01 | 0.38% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-HUF
|
320.7600 | 0.96 | 0.30% | 4:59 PM |
| USD-RUB
|
84.3883 | 0.60 | 0.71% | 4:15 PM |
OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE
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