Market Wrap-up  (10.17.2026)

“NOT TAKING A RISK IS A RISK. THAT’S HOW I SEE IT” (Robert Retford)

“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits” 

“Panic isn’t an investing strategy. And of course, neither is bravado”

 

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 November Coupon is down -16 BPS at 2:17 PM ET.

Glass Half Empty: The preliminary UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index crashed to 46.3, and the Current Conditions Index dropped to the lowest level on record, 44.7. Republicans had a very high reading of 84.0, while Democrats remained very, very, very low at 37.3.

On Deck for Tomorrow: ***Bond market is CLOSED Monday for Columbus Day***

Interest rates fell this week after six weeks of aggressive increases. The bond market benefited frm money moving into safe havens and away frm techs and AI investments, NASDAQ index fell 2.00% this week, according to reports it was the worst week 56 weeks.

Treasury reported the US deficit this morning, $1.992 trillion for 2026 fiscal year, increasing 12% frm 2025 and the 25th straight year of deficit spending, the third-highest annual deficit in US history, behind only 2020 and 2021, when the federal government was doling out trillions of dollars in financial stimulus amid the Covid-19 pandemic.

Regardless of this week’s improvement at the long end of the curve, the cost to fund the debt will keep interest rates frm declining much. 30 yr mortgage rates through the end of the year not likely to decline below 7.00%.

Current expectations are the Fed won’t increase rates on the 28th but will move rates higher at the Dec FOMC meeting.

Next week’s calendar is thin on key data; housing starts and permits, pending home sales U.of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The market focus next week, NASDAQ index performance, crue prices, mid-term election outlooks.

This Week: 10 yr this week -14 bps, the 2 yr -7 bps, FNMA 6.5 30 yr coupon +53 bps. The DJIA +347, NASDAQ -1,226, S&P -153. Gold -$31.00, crude oil +$9.88. The dollar index -0.50, bitcoin -1050.

 

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 yr note: 5.09% +1 bp

5 yr note: 4.89% -1 bp

2 year note: 4.73% -1 bp

30 yr bond: 5.44% +3 bp

30 yr FNMA 6.5: 101.14 -11 bp (+1 bp frm 9:30 am)

30 yr FNMA 6.0: 98.92 -7 bp (+12 bp frm 9:30 am)

30 yr GNMA 6.5: 100.81 +3 bp (-5 bp frm 9:30 am)

Dollar/Yen: 157.98 -0.01 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1236 +$0.0014

Dollar Index: 101.80 -0.26

Gold: $4,191 $21.00

Bitcoin: 81,240 -1060

Crude Oil: $101.30 +$3.33

DJIA: 52,002 -176

NASDAQ: 26,140 -573

S&P 500: 7659 -85

SOFR Data 10/16: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.87449, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.73159, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.69699, INDEX: 1.26303308

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	4,247.22	38.80	0.92%	4.02	47.11%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	160,221.60	1,640.20	1.03%	4.29	48.06%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	5,406.26	59.58	1.11%	4.79	44.97%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted			Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1239			0.00	0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	158.0200			0.02	0.01%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3327			0.01	0.39%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6946			0.00	0.36%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.4141			0.00	0.32%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8240			0.00	0.33%	4:59 PM
USD-MXN			18.4890	0.07	0.40%	4:59 PM
USD-CZK		21.6481		0.05	0.21%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK		26.8054		0.05	0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN		3.8879		0.01	0.17%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF		323.2500		0.93	0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB		83.4911		0.30	0.36%	4:00 PM

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

30 Yr. Fixed 7.37% +0.04% 5.99% 7.61% 15 Yr. Fixed 7.04% +0.06% 5.55% 7.23% 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.67% +0.02% 6.1% 7.71%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 16, 2026

Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Today, But Sharply Lower This Week Fri, Oct 16, 2026 2:18PM After dropping sharply over the past 5 days, mortgage rates finally reminded us that they’re still capable of moving higher. Thankfully, today’s bump was modest in the recent context, only adding 0.04% to a 30yr fixed that had fallen 0.27% since October 7th.  Even though today’s losses were minimal, they’re potentially informative. Much of this week’s improvement can be traced to concerns surrounding tech companies, and possible warning signs about a reduction in AI-related spending/investment throughout the sector.  While it’s too early to draw any conclusions about such things, w… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.37% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 7.04% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.99% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.67% +0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.81% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.01% +0.01 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/16   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.40% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.71% -0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/15   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.50% +0.01 0.83 15 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.16 0.90 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.49% +0.10 0.70 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/14

UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.89 -0.20 97.78 102.75 UMBS 30YR 6.5 101.13 -0.19 100.34 104.00 10 YR Treasury 5.101 +0.032 3.948 5.318

Bonds Still Capable of Selling Fri, Oct 16, 2026 10:06AM The past two days saw a unique confluence of factors that led to a precipitous, unexpected, and fairly large rally in the bond market. The easiest scapegoat is the general notion of fear surrounding AI/tech share prices and debt contagion. One simple effect was investors reallocating out of stocks and into bonds. Another effect could be investors shifting ou… (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 5.5 96.39 -0.25 UMBS 6.0 98.89 -0.20 UMBS 6.5 101.13 -0.19 GNMA 5.5 96.53 -0.23 GNMA 6.0 99.05 -0.11 GNMA 6.5 100.88 -0.10 Pricing as of: 10/16 3:01PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.747 0.000 5 YR Treasury 4.907 +0.029 7 YR Treasury 5.001 +0.041 10 YR Treasury 5.101 +0.032 30 YR Treasury 5.439 +0.031 Pricing as of: 10/16 3:01PM EST