Market Wrap-up  (10.24.2026)

          “NOT TAKING A RISK IS A RISK. THAT’S HOW I SEE IT” (Robert Retford)

         “Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits” 

         “Panic isn’t an investing strategy. And of coure bravado neither is”

  “Nikt nie zarobił pieniędzy stawiając przeciwko Ameryce” (Newt Gingrich)

 

Our benchmark FNMA MBS 6.50 November Coupon is up down -13 BPS at 3:07 PM ET.

Glass Half Empty: The final/revised October Consumer Sentiment Index moved from 46.3 to 48.0 with 12 month inflation expectations remaining at 4.7%.

 

SIGMA RESEARCH, INC. THE SHIRMEYER REPORT

Interest rates slightly higher today going into the weekend; today investors turned on the DJIA index for safety as equity markets remain under pressure. Increasing concern tech and AI stocks and equivalents have exceeded reality. It is the only reason interest rates have fallen this week, otherwise rates would be higher. How long the selling in the NASDAQ will continue is a wild card. We have outlined the reasons; inflation, the potential of a major Iranian war massive government and private debt, the FOMC meeting next Wednesday.

NASDAQ since the end of August; breaking 26K may add to selling.

It has been two weeks that rates have dropped taking mortgage rates from the high of 7.55% to slightly lower than 7.00%. For much of this year, treasuries offered investors little of their traditional protection when technology stocks stumbled. This week, that role has bounced back sharply.

Unlike this week, next week has a lot to think about with key data. Monday 2 year note auction. Tuesday 5 year note auction, Sept durable goods orders, August Case/Shiller home price index, Oct consumer confidence index, Sept new home sales. Wednesday 7 year note auction, FOMC meeting, MBA mortgage applications. Thursday weekly jobless claims Sept PCE inflation. Sept personal income and spending. Friday Q3 employment cost index.

This week: 10 year this week declined 9 bps, the 2 year note -3 bps, FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon increased 24 bps. The DJIA +212, NASDAQ -185, S&P -35. Gold fell $78.00, crude oil increased $2.54. The dollar index unchanged on the week and bitcoin down just 24.

1

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 5.00% +3 bp

5 year note: 4.82% +4 bp

2 year note: 4.70% +5 bp

30 year bond: 5.33% +5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.38 -12 bp (-11 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 99.38 -12 bp (-13 bp from 9:30 am)

30 year GNMA 6.5: 101.22 -1 bp (-1 bp from 9:30 am) by 5:00 its price will be lower

Dollar/Yen: 156.88 +0.11 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1196 -$0.0020

Dollar Index: 101.80 +0.20

Gold: $4013 -$47

Bitcoin: 81,216 -177

Crude Oil: $103.84 +$4.37

DJIA: 52,214 -654

NASDAQ: 25,955 -54

S&P 500: 7624 -40

SOFR Data 10/23: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.88887, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.75301, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.70633, INDEX: 1.26398658

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	4,167.13	26.15	0.62%	0.47	39.62%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	157,362.60	791.50	0.50%	0.07	41.05%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	5,320.65	31.77	0.59%	0.47	37.99%	11:15 AM

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1193	0.00	0.21%	4:30 PM
USD-JPY	156.8200	0.05	0.03%	4:30 PM
GBP-USD	1.3369	0.00	0.24%	4:30 PM
AUD-USD	0.7035	0.00	0.21%	4:30 PM
USD-CAD	1.4009	0.00	0.01%	4:30 PM
USD-CHF	0.8253	0.00	0.59%	4:29 PM
USD-MXN	18.6545	0.06	0.34%	4:32 PM

 

USD-CZK	21.7448	0.10	0.47%	4:34 PM
USD-SKK	26.9153	0.06	0.21%	4:34 PM
USD-PLN	3.9324	0.03	0.78%	4:34 PM
USD-HUF	327.4800	1.26	0.39%	4:34 PM
USD-RUB	80.7531	0.97	1.19%	3:30 PM

 

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

 

Compare Mortgage Ra 30 Yr. Fixed 7.33% +0.03%   5.99% 7.61% 15 Yr. Fixed 6.98% +0.02%   5.55% 7.23% 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.60% +0.00%   6.1% 7.71% tes from Local Lenders for Oct 23, 2026

Modest Uptick in Rates But Still Near 1-Month Lows Fri, Oct 23, 2026 3:02PM Yesterday was an exciting day for rates with the lowest levels since September 23rd and a fairly brisk decline versus the previous day.  Today? Fairly boring by comparison. Rates were technically a hair higher, which isn’t too surprising given the prevailing motivations in the tech sector. Yesterday’s rate rally coincided with heavy selling in tech stocks. With those same stocks avoiding drama today (and the NASDAQ moving slightly higher overall), bond yields (aka “rates”) also inched higher. The average mortgage lender moved up 0.03% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario leaving our index… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.33% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.98% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.98% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.60% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.75% -1.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.99% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 10/23   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.32% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.68% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/22   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.50% +0.01 0.83 15 Yr. Fixed 6.87% +0.16 0.90 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.49% +0.10 0.70 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/14

UMBS 30YR 6.0 99.45 -0.13 97.78 102.75 UMBS 30YR 6.5 101.39 -0.15 100.34 104.00 10 YR Treasury 4.987 +0.034 3.948 5.318

Et Tu, S&P PMI? Fri, Oct 23, 2026 9:16AM Little has changed between yesterday’s close and this morning’s early trading. 10yr yields are still several bps under 5%. MBS are still effectively at the highest levels in a month.  Tech isn’t happy, with futures hugging yesterday’s lows ahead of the open. One difference, however, is that we’ll get a piece of economic data this morning that had a shoc… (read more)

MBS Price Change UMBS 5.5 97.10 -0.12 UMBS 6.0 99.45 -0.13 UMBS 6.5 101.39 -0.15 GNMA 5.5 97.29 -0.06 GNMA 6.0 99.38 -0.12 GNMA 6.5 101.21 -0.04 Pricing as of: 10/23 3:26PM EST   US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 4.684 +0.046 5 YR Treasury 4.807 +0.035 7 YR Treasury 4.886 +0.033 10 YR Treasury 4.987 +0.034 30 YR Treasury 5.313 +0.031 Pricing as of: 10/23 3:26PM EST

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