Market Wrap-up  (11.07.2026)

“NOT TAKING A RISK IS A RISK. THAT’S HOW I SEE IT” (Robert Retford)

“Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits” 

“Panic isn’t an investing strategy. And of cours bravado”e, neither is

 

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: It was Big Jobs Friday and for a change it actually was. You can read the official BLS report here. Here is Bryan’s Tale of the Tape:

Jobs:

October Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) was much higher than expected, 165K versus estimates of 65K.

September NFP was revised higher from 29K to 60K.

August NFP was revised higher from 133K to 186K.

The rolling three month average moved higher to 137K.

Wages:

The Average Hourly Earnings rate increased by 14 cents to $38.00.

Average Hourly Earnings MOM up 0.4% versus estimates of 0.3%.

Average Hourly Earnings YOY up 3.1% versus estimates of 2.9%.

Unemployment:

The Headline Unemployment Rate dropped to 4.1% versus estimates of 4.2%.

U6 Underemployment moved much higher from 7.6% to 7.9%.

Labor Force Participation Rate moved up from 61.8% to 61.9%.

Glass half empty: The prelim UofM November Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 51.0 versus estimates of 48.0. The 1 year Inflation Expectations dropped from 4.7% to 4.3%.

The Talking Fed: SF Fed President Daly said “My expectation is we’re going to have to tighten policy further. Exactly when and how much is still to be decided because we just have to take all the variables that are coming in.”

 

What a week. Interest rates declined, crude oil declined, gold higher, stock indexes lower. Democrats trounced; cost of living, high gas prices, tariffs, fears of AI data centers. This morning’s October employment surprised with huge job gains, earlier this week September JOLTS job opening much better than anticipated. Employment headlines look good but under the surface there are concerns, the average duration of unemployment increased to 27 weeks, the longest since the pandemic, 2 mil people have used all of their unemployment benefits.

One of those weeks that is ending with continued uncertainty about what to make of it. Democrats will have power in the next Congress; how will the party use it? How will President Trump react? Will AI and tech stocks continue to perform well? How low will interest rates decline? Will prospective home buyers and sellers step up? It is going to take more time for markets to come to any definitive conclusions, which keep volatility running at high levels. And the Fed looms with a potential FF rate increase coming in 4 weeks.

Next week markets will get October CPI and PPI inflation data, and the October Treasury budget. Look for comments from Democrat leaders, comments from the President, and how tech stocks trade that will be key to interest rates. Over the last month the 10 year note, driver for long term interest rates has dropped from 5.37% to 4.86%, 30 year mortgages down 26 bps.

This week: 10 year note fell 7 bps, the 2 year note down 8 bps; FNMA 6.5 30 year coupon price gained 23 bps. The DJIA 484, NASDAQ -858, S&P -203. Gold +$189, crude oil -$12.56. The dollar index +0.41, bitcoin -727.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 4.87% +3 bp

5 year note: 4.65% +5 bp

2 year note: 4.52% +5 bp

30 year bond: 5.27% +1 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: 101.90 -8 bp (-1 bp from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 100.30 -6 bp (+4 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.5: 101.89 +10 bp (+15 bp from 9:30)

Dollar/Yen: 158.47 +0.78 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1140 -$0.0081

Dollar Index: 102.32 +0.77

Gold: $4,075 -$39.00

Bitcoin: 75,775 -283

Crude Oil: $90.71 +$0.91

DJIA: 51,286 -237

NASDAQ: 24,579 +264

S&P 500: 7377 +23

SOFR Data 11/06: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.91294, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.79876, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.73077, INDEX: 1.26592422

 

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG20:IND WIG 20	4,131.37	77.78	1.85%	2.15	37.41%	11:15 AM
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	156,043.30	1,979.80	1.25%	1.87	39.08%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	5,292.94	73.42	1.37%	1.00	36.37%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1143	0.01	0.68%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	158.4800	0.78	0.49%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3352	0.01	0.73%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6867	0.01	0.92%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.4128	0.01	0.78%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8205	0.00	0.48%	4:59 PM

 

USD-MXN

18.6156

0.14

0.75%

4:59 PM

 

USD-CZK	21.8383	0.15	0.69%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.0349	0.18	0.68%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9422	0.02	0.54%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	325.9200	1.16	0.36%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	82.0000	0.48	0.59%	4:58 PM

 

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

30 Yr. Fixed 7.17% +0.00% 5.99% 7.61% 15 Yr. Fixed 6.83% +0.03% 5.55% 7.23% 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.38% +0.01% 6.26% 7.71%

Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at Lows Despite Stronger Jobs Report Fri, Nov 6, 2026 3:06PM Today was an odd one for mortgage rates. Anyone who’s been following the rate market for very long will tell you that the monthly jobs report is one of the most reliable source of volatility for rates. In general, when job growth is much stronger than expected, rates rise and vice versa. But in today’s case, rates managed to hold perfectly flat despite the jobs report absolutely crushing expectations. Understand that no one who is offering a reason for this would have predicted this result if they knew the jobs numbers ahead of time and were simply asked to predict how rates would react. In o… (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.17% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.83% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.82% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.38% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.50% -0.16 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.84% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 11/6   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.18% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.57% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/5   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.37% -0.04 0.76 15 Yr. Fixed 6.70% -0.03 0.85 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.28% -0.05 0.64 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 10/28

UMBS 30YR 6.0 100.33 -0.02 97.78 102.75 UMBS 30YR 6.5 101.94 -0.05 100.34 104.00 10 YR Treasury 4.852 +0.017 3.948 5.318

Super Strong Jobs Report NOT Hitting Bonds Like You’d Expect Fri, Nov 6, 2026 9:25AM Nonfarm payrolls came in 100k higher than forecast and the unemployment dropped even as the participation rate moved higher. That’s a recipe for a bond market sell-off if we ever saw one. But apart from an initial knee-jerk sell-off, yields returned back in line with pre-NFP levels within 8 minutes and haven’t moved much since then. What gives? Well… we … (read more)