Market Wrap-up  (11.14.2026)

                                     “NOT TAKING A RISK IS A RISK. THAT’S HOW I SEE IT” (Robert Retford)

                                          “Knowledge is the Key to Success….Timing is the Key to Profits” 

                                         “Panic isn’t an investing strategy. And of coure bravado neither is”

                                    “Nikt nie zarobił pieniędzy stawiając przeciwko Ameryce” (Newt Gingrich)

 

Inflation Nation: October Headline PPI increased by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.4% on a MOM basis, however September was revised higher to 1.4%. YOY, it was up 6.5% versus 6.3% in September. Core (ex food and energy) PPI Increased by 0.3% versus estimates of 0.3% on a MOM basis and 5.0% versus estimates of 5.0% on a YOY basis

Interest rates on the move higher this week, October CPI and PPI both up more than thought. Several Fed officials speaking this week making it clear the Fed must step up. Today Chicago Fed President Goolsbee added his input, “I believe that the central bank has definitely got work to do to continue to reestablish its credibility.” The Fed will increase rates on Dec 9th. Earlier this week Fed Governor Waller raised the possibility the Fed could move the FF rate up 50 bps from 25 bps expected. Bank of England increased rates for the first time in three years, next month the ECB is expected to increase rates.

Another push higher, President Trump commenting he doesn’t need a deal with Iran, the Strait is closed to Iran, and the US has blocked billions of dollars from Iran getting control of it. If there is no deal inflation outlooks will increase.

If that were not enough to spook the bond market, yesterday Treasury reported the October budget balance, the first month of fiscal 2027; the deficit for the month, -$404.1B. That is $120B higher than last October, 42%.

From a technical view the bellwether 10 year note yield has moved above its 25 day moving average and its 50 day for the first time since June 24th.

The near-term outlook is mortgage rates are going to remain above 7.0% (7.50% isn’t out of the picture).

Next week’s calendar: Monday Nov Empire State manufacturing index. Tuesday October retail sales, Oct import and export prices, Oct industrial production and capacity utilization, Nov NAHB housing market index. Wednesday MBA mortgage applications, Oct housing starts and permits, Oct pending home sales, FOMC minutes from the last meeting. Thursday weekly jobless claims, Nov Philadelphia Fed business index. Friday final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.

This Week: 10 year note yield increased 19 bp, the 2 year note increased 37 bps. FNMA 6.5 coupon lost 122 bps. The DJIA +1,062, NASDAQ +1,557, S&P +185. Gold fell $196.00, crude oil declined $1.93 The dollar increased, the index +1.09. Bitcoin crashed -6,926.

PRICES @ 4:00 PM

10 year note: 5.16% +3 bp

5 year note: 4.99% +2 bp

2 year note: 4.89% unch

30 year bond: 5.48% +5 bp

30 year FNMA 6.5: 100.68 -7 bp (unch from 9:30)

30 year FNMA 6.0: 98.64 -14 bp (-5 bp from 9:30)

30 year GNMA 6.5: 100.71 -26 bp (-20 bp from 9:30?)

Dollar/Yen: 159.81 -0.03 yen

Dollar/Euro: $1.1022 -$0.0032

Dollar Index: 103.41 +0.23

Gold: $3,879 -$7.00

Bitcoin: 68,849 -2522

Crude Oil: $88.78 +$0.04

DJIA: 52,348 +50

NASDAQ: 25,136 -230

S&P 500: 7562 -31

SOFR Data 11/13: 30-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.91665, 90-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.81961, 180-DAY AVERAGE(%): 3.74310, INDEX: 1.26688201

Poland

Name, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	% Change, not sorted	1 Month, not sorted	1 Year, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
WIG:IND WSE WIG INDEX	161,824.70	381.40	0.24%	1.58	43.80%	11:15 AM
WIG20:IND WIG 20	4,298.46	18.96	0.44%	1.74	42.51%	11:15 AM
WIG30:IND WIG30	5,504.10	18.27	0.33%	2.57	41.48%	11:15 AM

 

WALUTY

 

Currency, not sorted	Value, not sorted	Change, not sorted	Net Change, not sorted	Time (EDT), not sorted
EUR-USD	1.1023	0.00	0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-JPY	159.7100	0.13	0.08%	4:59 PM
GBP-USD	1.3214	0.00	0.16%	4:59 PM
AUD-USD	0.6772	0.00	0.53%	4:59 PM
USD-CAD	1.4270	0.00	0.09%	4:59 PM
USD-CHF	0.8388	0.00	0.41%	4:59 PM

 

USD-MXN

18.5371

0.06

0.35%

4:59 P

 

 

USD-CZK	22.1325	0.08	0.36%	4:59 PM
USD-SKK	27.3304	0.08	0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-PLN	3.9954	0.01	0.29%	4:59 PM
USD-HUF	331.0200	0.59	0.18%	4:59 PM
USD-RUB	82.3758	0.14	0.17%	4:52 PM

OPROCENTOWANIA I OBLIGACJE

30 Yr. Fixed 7.50% +0.08% 5.99% 7.61% 15 Yr. Fixed 7.03% +0.03% 5.55% 7.23% 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.50% +0.04% 6.26% 7.71%

Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Nov 13, 2026

Mortgage Rates Have Given Back Almost All of October’s Gains Fri, Nov 13, 2026 3:20PM In 3 short days, the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate has risen 0.32% to 7.50%, erasing a vast majority of the improvement seen over the past 5 weeks. Today’s increase wasn’t nearly as sharp as each of the previous 2 days, but it wasn’t small either. Notably, rates went higher today even though the underlying bond market held reasonably steady. On most days, a flat bond market would result in far less rate movement. Today was an exception largely due to timing. Yesterday afternoon saw bonds lose ground late in the day–too late for the average lender to go to the trouble of changing … (read more)

Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.50% +0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 7.03% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 7.05% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.50% +0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 7.13% +0.08 0.00 30 Yr. VA 7.07% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily – Last Update: 11/13   Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 7.11% -0.07 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.45% -0.12 0.00 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/12   Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.21% -0.09 0.75 15 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.12 0.97 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.21% +0.01 0.47 Updates Weekly – Last Update: 11/11

UMBS 30YR 6.0 98.74 -0.02 97.78 102.75 UMBS 30YR 6.5 100.72 +0.01 100.34 104.00 10 YR Treasury 5.156 +0.026 3.948 5.318

 

Home price changes for Chicago-Naperville-Schaumburg, IL